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MBODDS GLOBAL - Enhanced

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MBODDS GLOBAL Indicator – Detailed Interpretation
What does the indicator measure?
Liquidity preferences
Credit risk perception
Market stress levels
Interpreting the ODDS Value
ODDS Value Explanation
Positive ODDS (> 0) SOFR is higher than the T-Bill rate → Interbank liquidity is more expensive → Possible financial stress.
Negative ODDS (< 0) T-Bill rates are higher than SOFR → The government pays more interest in the short term → Liquidity abundance, normal market conditions.
ODDS ≈ 0 Neutral market state → Low stress, market is stable.
Z-Score Interpretation (Extremity Analysis)
The Z-Score measures the standard deviation of ODDS, detecting extreme values:
Z-Score Meaning
> +1.0 Spread is unusually high → Stress/crisis risk increases.
< -1.0 Spread is unusually low → Liquidity could be abundant.
> +2.0 Extremely high spread → Systemic risk (observed during 2008-2020 periods).
≈ 0 Average level → Normal conditions, no notable risk.
The Z-Score functions as an "anomaly detector" for this indicator.
SMA (Simple Moving Average) Interpretation
The 21-day SMA shows the trend of ODDS:
ODDS consistently above SMA: Rising stress and credit costs.
ODDS consistently below SMA: Easier liquidity and lower market concerns.
Threshold Bands (±0.5)
These thresholds are visual guides for alerts:
ODDS > +0.5: Rising stress, potential liquidity tightening → Risky environment.
ODDS < -0.5: Low spread → Abundant liquidity, low stress → Comfortable environment.
Use Cases
Macro analysis (especially after Fed policy changes)
Direction determination in bond, equity, or credit markets
Early signal for stressful periods
Predicting liquidity crises
Conclusion:
This indicator acts as a macro-based "silent alarm." Specifically:
SOFR > T-Bill and Z-Score > 1: Stress and risk are increasing, protection strategies should be considered.
T-Bill > SOFR and Z-Score < -1: Liquidity is abundant, risk appetite may rise.
MBODDS GLOBAL Indicator – Detailed Interpretation
What does the indicator measure?
Liquidity preferences
Credit risk perception
Market stress levels
Interpreting the ODDS Value
ODDS Value Explanation
Positive ODDS (> 0) SOFR is higher than the T-Bill rate → Interbank liquidity is more expensive → Possible financial stress.
Negative ODDS (< 0) T-Bill rates are higher than SOFR → The government pays more interest in the short term → Liquidity abundance, normal market conditions.
ODDS ≈ 0 Neutral market state → Low stress, market is stable.
Z-Score Interpretation (Extremity Analysis)
The Z-Score measures the standard deviation of ODDS, detecting extreme values:
Z-Score Meaning
> +1.0 Spread is unusually high → Stress/crisis risk increases.
< -1.0 Spread is unusually low → Liquidity could be abundant.
> +2.0 Extremely high spread → Systemic risk (observed during 2008-2020 periods).
≈ 0 Average level → Normal conditions, no notable risk.
The Z-Score functions as an "anomaly detector" for this indicator.
SMA (Simple Moving Average) Interpretation
The 21-day SMA shows the trend of ODDS:
ODDS consistently above SMA: Rising stress and credit costs.
ODDS consistently below SMA: Easier liquidity and lower market concerns.
Threshold Bands (±0.5)
These thresholds are visual guides for alerts:
ODDS > +0.5: Rising stress, potential liquidity tightening → Risky environment.
ODDS < -0.5: Low spread → Abundant liquidity, low stress → Comfortable environment.
Use Cases
Macro analysis (especially after Fed policy changes)
Direction determination in bond, equity, or credit markets
Early signal for stressful periods
Predicting liquidity crises
Conclusion:
This indicator acts as a macro-based "silent alarm." Specifically:
SOFR > T-Bill and Z-Score > 1: Stress and risk are increasing, protection strategies should be considered.
T-Bill > SOFR and Z-Score < -1: Liquidity is abundant, risk appetite may rise.
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Mã được bảo vệ
Tập lệnh này được đăng dưới dạng mã nguồn đóng. Tuy nhiên, bạn có thể tự do sử dụng tập lệnh mà không có bất kỳ hạn chế nào – tìm hiểu thêm tại đây.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.