Institutional ADR Regime System [Pro]

# 📊 Institutional ADR Regime System [Pro] - Advanced Average Daily Range Analysis

## 🎯 Overview

The **Institutional ADR Regime System** is a comprehensive volatility and regime analysis tool designed for professional traders who use Average Daily Range (ADR) as a cornerstone of their intraday strategy. This indicator goes far beyond simple ADR calculation by integrating **multi-timeframe analysis**, **directional bias detection**, **volume confirmation**, **regime classification**, and **probability-based target projections**.

Built specifically for **Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stock Futures, Forex, and Crypto** traders, this system helps you identify high-probability setups based on volatility regimes and ADR expansion/compression cycles.

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## 🚀 Key Features

### 📈 **Multi-Timeframe ADR Engine**
- **Three ADR Lookbacks**: Fast (5-period), Medium (10-period), Slow (20-period) for complete volatility context
- **Real-time Session Tracking**: Live calculation of current day's range vs ADR percentages
- **Multiple Calculation Methods**: True Range (gap-adjusted), High-Low (intraday), Close-to-Close
- **Configurable Base Timeframes**: Daily or Weekly ADR projections

### 🧠 **Intelligent Regime Classification**
- **4 Market Regimes**: Compressed (<65% ADR), Normal (65-120%), Expanded (120-150%), Exhausted (>150%)
- **Compression Cluster Detection**: Identifies "coiled spring" setups when market compresses for multiple consecutive days
- **Visual Regime Indicators**: Background color-coding for instant regime recognition
- **Automated Expansion Alerts**: Get notified when compression clusters are ready to break

### 🎯 **Dynamic Target Projection System**
- **4 Probabilistic Targets**: 50% / 75% / 100% / 125% ADR levels
- **Historical Hit-Rate Tracking**: See success rates for each target level over last N sessions
- **Confidence Scoring (0-100%)**: Multi-factor scoring based on regime, trend, volume, and statistics
- **Adaptive Transparency**: Target lines fade when confidence is low, highlight when high

### 📊 **Directional Context Engine**
- **Trend Filter**: Higher timeframe EMA alignment (auto-detects bullish/bearish bias)
- **VWAP Integration**: Monitors price position relative to VWAP for institutional bias
- **Multi-TF Trend Confirmation**: Optional higher timeframe trend filter (Weekly/Monthly)
- **Bias Scoring System**: -3 to +3 score combining trend, VWAP, and HTF alignment
- **Auto/Manual Mode**: Let the system decide bull/bear targets or override manually

### 📈 **Volume Confirmation Layer**
- **Volume MA Threshold**: Requires volume confirmation above customizable threshold (default 1.2×)
- **Real-time Volume Status**: Displays current volume as % of moving average
- **Volume-Gated Alerts**: Smart alerts only fire when volume confirms the move

### ⚖️ **Risk Management Module**
- **ATR-Based Stop Suggestions**: Auto-calculates suggested stop loss based on ATR multiplier
- **R:R Calculator**: Shows risk-reward ratios for each target level
- **Position Sizing Hints**: Helps determine appropriate lot size based on account risk %
- **Dynamic Stop Visualization**: Plots suggested stop level on chart

### 📊 **Professional Statistics Dashboard**
- **Real-Time ADR Usage Meter**: Shows % of ADR consumed (color-coded risk zones)
- **Multi-Period Comparison**: Current range vs 5D / 10D / 20D ADR
- **Historical Hit-Rates**: Target success rates tracked over configurable lookback
- **Playbook Hints**: Context-aware trading suggestions (Breakout Play, Fade Zone, Trend Day, etc.)
- **Compact/Full/Minimal Modes**: Choose your preferred panel size
- **Mobile-Optimized**: Readable on all screen sizes

### 🔔 **Smart Alert System**
- **Target 1 Approach**: Fires when price approaches T1 with high confidence + volume
- **Exhaustion Zone**: Alerts when ADR >150% used (fade opportunity)
- **Coiled Spring**: Triggers on compression cluster completion (expansion setup)
- **High-Probability Confirmation**: Multi-factor confirmation alerts (trend + volume + T1 break)

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## 💡 Use Cases & Trading Applications

### ✅ **Intraday Range Traders**
- Identify compressed days for range-bound strategies
- Avoid overextended days with exhaustion warnings
- Scale into positions at probabilistic support/resistance levels

### ✅ **Breakout & Momentum Traders**
- Detect "coiled spring" compression clusters before expansion
- Enter on confirmed ADR breakouts with volume
- Use confidence scoring to filter low-probability setups

### ✅ **Mean Reversion & Fade Specialists**
- Identify exhaustion zones (>150% ADR) for counter-trend entries
- Fade extremes when price reaches 125% target with weak volume
- Use HTF resistance/support confluence with ADR targets

### ✅ **Position Traders (Swing)**
- Weekly ADR projections for multi-day targets
- Trend + ADR alignment for high-conviction entries
- R:R-based position sizing at each target level

### ✅ **Options Traders**
- Volatility regime classification for straddle/strangle timing
- Compression clusters = pre-expansion option buying opportunity
- Exhaustion zones = premium selling setups

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## 🔧 Configuration Guide

### **Core Settings**
- **Market Type**: Equity / Futures / Forex / Crypto (affects session detection)
- **Base Timeframe**: Daily or Weekly ADR calculation
- **Target Direction**: Auto (trend-based) / Bull / Bear (manual override)

### **ADR Parameters**
- **Fast/Med/Slow Periods**: Customize ADR lookbacks (default: 5/10/20)
- **Calculation Method**: True Range (recommended) / High-Low / Close-to-Close
- **Regime Thresholds**: Adjust compression/expansion levels to your instrument

### **Session Settings** (Critical for Intraday)
- **Enable Session Filter**: Only calculate ADR during RTH (Regular Trading Hours)
- **Session Hours**: Set your market's trading hours (e.g., 09:15-15:30 IST for Nifty)
- **Timezone**: Select your market's timezone

### **Filters & Confirmations**
- **Trend EMA Length**: Adjust trend filter sensitivity (default: 50)
- **Volume Threshold**: Set volume confirmation multiplier (default: 1.2×)
- **Higher TF Trend**: Enable weekly/monthly trend filter

### **Risk Management**
- **Stop ATR Multiplier**: Default stop distance (default: 1.5× ATR)
- **Account Risk %**: For position sizing calculations

### **Statistics**
- **Statistical Lookback**: Hit-rate calculation period (default: 50 sessions)
- **Enable Stats**: Toggle historical probability tracking

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## 📖 Interpretation Guide

### **Regime Colors** (Background)
- 🟠 **Orange**: Compressed (<65% ADR) - Range-bound day likely
- 🔵 **Aqua**: Expanded (120-150%) - Strong trending day
- 🔴 **Red**: Exhausted (>150%) - Overextended, fade zone
- ⚪ **Neutral**: Normal (65-120%) - Standard volatility

### **Target Line Transparency**
- **Bold/Solid**: High confidence (>70%) - Strong probability
- **Medium**: Moderate confidence (50-70%)
- **Faded**: Low confidence (<50%) - Caution advised

### **Bias Score**
- **+2 to +3**: Strong bullish alignment (trend + VWAP + HTF)
- **+1**: Weak bullish bias
- **0**: Neutral
- **-1**: Weak bearish bias
- **-2 to -3**: Strong bearish alignment

### **Playbook Hints**
- ⚡ **"BREAKOUT PLAY"**: Coiled spring detected, expansion imminent
- ⚠️ **"FADE ZONE"**: Exhausted + volume = reversal opportunity
- 📈 **"TREND DAY"**: Expanded regime + directional bias = follow trend
- 💤 **"RANGE TRADE"**: Compressed regime = buy support, sell resistance
- ➡️ **"NORMAL DAY"**: Standard conditions, no special setup

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## 🎓 Trading Strategy Examples

### **Strategy 1: Compression Breakout**
1. Wait for 3+ consecutive compressed days (<65% ADR)
2. Monitor for "🚀 EXPANSION READY" alert
3. Enter on first 50% target break with volume confirmation
4. Target: 100-125% levels | Stop: Suggested ATR stop

### **Strategy 2: Exhaustion Fade**
1. Price reaches 125-150% ADR target
2. Volume confirmation present but regime shows "EXHAUSTED"
3. Enter counter-trend at target level
4. Target: Mean reversion to 75% level | Stop: 1.5× ATR beyond entry

### **Strategy 3: Trend Following**
1. Bias score ≥ +2 (or ≤ -2 for bearish)
2. Price in expanded regime (120-150%)
3. Enter on pullbacks to 50-75% levels
4. Target: Next sequential target | Stop: VWAP or EMA

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## ⚙️ Technical Specifications

- **Pine Script Version**: v6
- **Chart Type**: Overlay indicator
- **Max Labels/Lines**: 500 each (optimized for performance)
- **Calculation Frequency**: Real-time (tick-by-tick)
- **Memory Usage**: Efficient array management for long-term statistics
- **Repaint Behavior**: No repainting - uses confirmed HTF data only

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## 🔔 Alert Setup Guide

1. **Add Indicator** to chart
2. Click **"Create Alert"** (TradingView alert icon)
3. **Condition**: Select desired alert from dropdown:
- 🎯 T1 Approach [High Confidence]
- ⚠️ Exhaustion Zone
- 🚀 Coiled Spring Active
- ✅ High-Probability Setup
4. **Configure frequency**: Once Per Bar Close (recommended)
5. **Enable notifications** (Email, SMS, Webhook)

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## 📱 Best Practices

### ✅ **DO:**
- Combine with support/resistance zones for confluence
- Wait for volume confirmation on target breaks
- Use confidence score to filter low-probability setups
- Adjust session hours for your specific market
- Track hit-rates over time to calibrate thresholds

### ❌ **DON'T:**
- Trade against strong directional bias (score ≤ -2 or ≥ +2)
- Ignore regime classification (don't fade in expansion, don't breakout in compression)
- Chase targets in exhaustion zone without mean reversion plan
- Trade without volume confirmation in low-liquidity sessions
- Override auto bias without clear technical reason

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## 🎯 Ideal For

✅ **Day Traders** (Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stock Futures)
✅ **Scalpers** (using 5-min / 15-min charts)
✅ **Swing Traders** (Weekly ADR mode)
✅ **Options Traders** (volatility regime analysis)
✅ **Prop Traders** (institutional-grade risk management)

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## 📜 Disclaimer

This indicator is a **decision-support tool** and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance of hit-rates does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management, position sizing, and stop losses. The creator is not responsible for any trading losses incurred using this tool. Test thoroughly on paper/demo accounts before live trading.

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## 🔄 Updates & Support

**Current Version**: 1.0
**Last Updated**: December 2025

For questions, feedback, or feature requests, comment below or message directly.

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## 🏆 Credits

Developed by a quantitative trader for institutional-grade ADR analysis. Inspired by PivotBoss ADR methodology and enhanced with modern regime detection, multi-factor confirmation, and probability-based targeting.

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**Tags**: #ADR #AverageDailyRange #VolatilityIndicator #RegimeAnalysis #IntradayTrading #NiftyTrading #BankNifty #Options #BreakoutStrategy #MeanReversion

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