OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Expected Volatility
Cập nhật
Expected Volatility
Hello and welcome to my first indicator! I'm publishing this indicator as free to use and modify because I think it's a great place to learn and I hope I can teach you something.
There are some terms which you need to understand before I begin explaining this indicator and what it does for you:
Daily Settlement - The price at which a market closes when the trading day closes (RTH or Regular Trading Hours close)
Standard Deviation - A measure in statistics that declares how far away a data point is from the mean when compared with all the data points before it to an extent
Now for the history behind this indicator:
Rule of 16. This goes back to the VIX, or S&P 500 volatility index. The idea behind the volatility index is to determine what magnitude of movement could be expected from the market the following day based on recent movement. The rule of 16 is an easier way to refer to the square root of the number of trading days in a year. There are 252 trading days in a year and the square root of 252 is approximately 15.87. We estimate it to be 16 because it's easier to talk about when it's easier to say and therefore easier to remember.
The relevance of this rule is that when the VIX is at 16, we can expect a market movement of 1% or so unless some special circumstances overrule this estimate. To get the expected market movement, we take 16 and divide by 16 and get 1, or 1%. If the VIX is trading at 24, we get 24/16 or 1.5 which is 1.5% movement. This indicator seeks to simplify the math and lay it out in a visual way to show the highest probability of range the market is expected to trade.
Thanks for taking the time to read my description, I hope you like my indicator.
Special thanks to my trading friends and coaches for helping me complete this indicator.
Hello and welcome to my first indicator! I'm publishing this indicator as free to use and modify because I think it's a great place to learn and I hope I can teach you something.
There are some terms which you need to understand before I begin explaining this indicator and what it does for you:
Daily Settlement - The price at which a market closes when the trading day closes (RTH or Regular Trading Hours close)
Standard Deviation - A measure in statistics that declares how far away a data point is from the mean when compared with all the data points before it to an extent
Now for the history behind this indicator:
Rule of 16. This goes back to the VIX, or S&P 500 volatility index. The idea behind the volatility index is to determine what magnitude of movement could be expected from the market the following day based on recent movement. The rule of 16 is an easier way to refer to the square root of the number of trading days in a year. There are 252 trading days in a year and the square root of 252 is approximately 15.87. We estimate it to be 16 because it's easier to talk about when it's easier to say and therefore easier to remember.
The relevance of this rule is that when the VIX is at 16, we can expect a market movement of 1% or so unless some special circumstances overrule this estimate. To get the expected market movement, we take 16 and divide by 16 and get 1, or 1%. If the VIX is trading at 24, we get 24/16 or 1.5 which is 1.5% movement. This indicator seeks to simplify the math and lay it out in a visual way to show the highest probability of range the market is expected to trade.
Thanks for taking the time to read my description, I hope you like my indicator.
Special thanks to my trading friends and coaches for helping me complete this indicator.
Phát hành các Ghi chú
Added support for YM / VXD to allow usage with the Dow Jones futures contract set.Supported markets are now:
ES/VIX
NQ/VOLQ
CL/OVX
RTY/RVX
VIX/VVIX
GC/GVZ
SI/VXSLV
YM/VXD
Future release may include use of a for loop to iterate through pairs of markets to make adding new markets easier.
Phát hành các Ghi chú
Updated the volatility source for NQ to be VXN over VOLQ as NASDAQ:VOLQ is discontinued.Mã nguồn mở
Theo tinh thần TradingView thực sự, tác giả của tập lệnh này đã xuất bản dưới dạng nguồn mở để các nhà giao dịch có thể hiểu và xác minh. Chúc mừng tác giả! Bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí. Tuy nhiên, bạn cần sử dụng lại mã này theo Quy tắc nội bộ. Bạn có thể yêu thích nó để sử dụng nó trên biểu đồ.
Bạn muốn sử dụng tập lệnh này trên biểu đồ?
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.