Bitcoin Risk Long Term indicatorOBJECTIVE:
The purpose of this indicator is to synthesize via an average several indicators from a wide choice with in order to simplify the reading of the bitcoin price and that on a long term vision.
Useful for those who want to see things simply, typically to make a smart DCA based on risk.
I originally used this script as a sandbox to understand and test the usefulness of several indicators, and to develop my PineScript skills, but finally the Risk Indicator output seems relevant so I decided to share it.
USAGE:
The selected indicators are the ones that I think give the best market bottoms, but the idea here is that anyone can try and use any set of indicators based on those preferences (post in comments if you find a relevant config)
Most of the indicator inputs are configurable. And some are not taken into account in the calculation of the Risk indicator because I consider them not relevant, this script is also a test more than a final version.
NOTES :
If you have any idea of adding an indicator, modification, criticism, bug found: share them, it is appreciated!
In the future I will create another more versatile Risk indicator that will not be focused on bitcoin in weekly. (this indicator is still usable on other assets and timeframe)
THANKS:
to Benjamin Cowen for inspiring me with his Bitcoin Risk metric
to Lazybear for his Wavetrend Indicator and all the scripts he shares
to Mabonyi for his Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves & Zones script
to VuManChu for his VMC Cypher B Divergence
to the Trading view team for developing TV and PineScript
And to all the community for all the published codes that allowed me to progress and create this script
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OBJECTIF :
L'objectif de cet indicateur est de synthétiser via une moyenne plusieurs indicateurs parmi un large choix avec afin de simplifier la lecture du cours de bitcoin et cela sur une vision longue terme.
Utile pour ceux qui veulent voir les choses simplement, typiquement faire un DCA intelligent en fonction du risque.
À la base j'ai utilisé ce script comme un bac à sable pour comprendre puis tester l'utilité de plusieurs indicateurs, et développer mes compétences PineScript, mais finalement l'output Risk Indicateur me semble pertinent donc autant le partager.
UTILISATION :
Les indicateurs sélectionnés sont ceux qui permettent selon moi d'avoir les meilleurs point bas de marché, mais l'idée ici est que chacun puisse essayer et utiliser n'importe quel ensemble d'indicateur en fonction de ces préférences (poster en commentaire si vous trouvez une configuration pertinente)
La plupart des inputs indicateurs sont paramétrables. Et certains ne sont pas pris en compte dans le calcul du Risk indicateur car je les estime non pertinent, ce script est aussi un essai plus qu'une version finale.
NOTES :
Si vous avez la moindre idée d'ajout d'indicateur, modification, critique, bug trouvé : partagez-les, c'est apprécié !
à l'avenir je créerais un autre Risk indicator plus polyvalent qui ne sera pas focalisé sur bitcoin en weekly. (cet indicateur est tout de même utilisable sur d'autre actif et timeframe)
REMERCIEMENT :
à Benjamin Cowen pour m'avoir inspiré avec son Bitcoin Risk metric
à Lazybear pour son Wavetrend Indicator et globalement tout les scripts qu'il partage
à Mabonyi pour son script Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves & Zones
à VuManChu pour son VMC Cypher B Divergence
à l'équipe Trading view pour avoir développé TV et PineScript
Et à toute la communauté pour tous les codes publiés qui m'ont permis de progresser et de créer ce script
Risk
Position Sizing CalculatorThis is an intuitive risk management tool with a minimalist design.
This calculator will determine your position size per trade, profit, loss, risk/reward ratio and leverage if any.
It will calculate your leverage if you are trading financial instruments e.g. Mini Futures , Turbo Warrants etc. that have a financing level.
Tip: Use this as a complement to the Long/Short Position tool.
Provide the following inputs to get a calculation:
- Position type
- Account balance
- Risk per trade percentage
- Financing level (if any for leveraged instruments), else let it be 0
- Entry price
- Target price
- Stopp loss price
You can also choose the color of the output text, its background and position in the chart window.
Enjoy!
Risk AssistAs the profit level increases, the amount of profit taking required to avoid risk asymptotically reaches zero.
This indicator displays the % of the established position required to exit in order to ensure the trade is not a loss if the stop is hit.
Values in green (at or below 100%) indicate a winning position.
Values in red (above 100%) indicate a losing position.
Alert Examples:
If you are intent on "selling half" to avoid risk, you can set an alert on the value of this indicator for 50.
If you are intent on "selling a 3rd" to avoid risk, you can set an alert on the value of this indicator for 33.3.
Market Risk IndicatorThere are many tools for swing traders. Position traders have not as much, perhaps because they live in the fringe zone between fundamental analysis and trend following.
In order to bridge this gap between fundamental analysis and technical analysis on large timeframes, we decided to work on building a market indicator that assesses its risk and quantifies it on a single dimension number.
The challenge is to consider as input different assets, that individually are themselves often market driving forces, and collectively, more often than not, are sufficient to determine the market status quo.
We came up with DXY , US10Y , HYG and WTI. The latter, the bigger the better; the former, vice versa.
Each asset is evaluated against its recent max/min range, percentually. The positive ones add up and vice versa.
This is still ongoing work. the math and code are simple. the heart of the matter is selecting the proper assets and processing them even better.
Thank you.
Market Hedge RatioRatio of crypto (total, Bitcoin, or Ethereum market cap) to major stable coins.
A low ratio suggests a lot of people are sitting in cash (sidelined if crypto rallies).
A high ratio suggests possible demand saturation.
Modified Mannarino Market Risk IndicatorThis indicator is meant to give an overall indication of risk and a very basic implementation of the modified mannarino market risk indicator. I take no credit for the original formula, and just decided to hack this together so that it could be useful to the community
Value-at-Risk Value-at-Risk is a risk measurement tool widely used by banks and institutions.
This script uses historical simulation method for the calculation of VaR. The default settings are 250-days period. 1 percentile (or 99 percentile confidence level.)
This means the daily loss for the past 250 days should not exceed the risk measure 99% of the time.
traders can calculate the desired level of risk by converting the timeframe OR by multiplying the square root (expected holding period) to find out the VaR value for 5 days, 25 days, 250 days etc.
Do take note that the default assumes a long position, if you are taking a short position, the percentile value has to be adjusted accordingly (to find the worst 1 percent loss for shorts will require changing the input to 99)
SignalsThis script allows you to calculate position size, and future profit, loses.
- You can add 3 target values and 1 stop loss
- Optionally you can display table, position it as you like, and see risk ratio
Plans:
- add profit loss to the labels
BTC Risk Metric - Estimates the risk of BTC price versus the USD
- To be used on the daily timeframe
- Works best on a BTC pair that has a lot of bars, e.g. The Bitcoin All Time History Index
- 0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest risk
- Historically, buying when the risk was low and selling when the risk was high would have yielded good ROI
- The risk bands are 0.1 in width and are highlighted on the plot
Typical Strategy:
- weighted DCA into the market when risk <0.5, do nothing between 0.5-0.6 and weighted DCA out of the market when risk >0.6
- x = buy amount per DCA interval
- y = 1/10th total BTC held by the user
- if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x
- if 0.1 ≤ Risk < 0.2 then buy 4x
- if 0.2 ≤ Risk < 0.3 then buy 3x
- if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x
- if 0.4 ≤ Risk < 0.5 then buy x
- if 0.5 ≤ Risk < 0.6 then do nothing
- if 0.6 ≤ Risk < 0.7 then sell y
- if 0.7 ≤ Risk < 0.8 then sell 2y
- if 0.8 ≤ Risk < 0.9 then sell 3y
- if 0.9 ≤ Risk ≤ 1.0 then sell 4y
Position size FX and CryptoThis indicator I am using to calculate the position size to order for Forex and Crypto Future
Risk adjusted returns data (volatility optimised)RAR - risk adjusted returns. This methodology could be helpful in portfolio creation and position size risk management. We can set our own preference of risk tolerance via the X variable which is the exponent of volatility in our calculations. This gives an unlimited set of example portfolios on a given time-frame that can be sorted from return oriented to volatility reduction oriented as X increases. RARs are to be compared against eachother.
BTCUSD Risk Oscillator- To be used with the BTCUSD All Time History Index (on the daily)
- Estimates the current risk of BTCUSD
- The risk model oscillates between 0 and 1 (0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest)
- Historically, buying when the risk is low and selling when the risk is high yields good ROI
- User inputs generally do not need to be changed, they are used to create integers for the normalization process
cowen risk indexThis is my attempt at remaking the cowen risk index. It's definitely not correct, but should give a rough estimate of where his indicator is at. I am taking the price divided by the 400sma to get an oscillator, then we need to account for diminishing returns so I just made an exponentially increasing variable and mutliplying that by the oscillator value. Then I normalized the data as best as I could. Not sure exactly how to do that so if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know.
This only works on the daily and weekly timeframe. You will need to edit the code if you want to have it work for other timeframes.
Bjorgum AutoTrailOne Time Trade Risk Management
Incorporating the new interactive feature, this script is meant as a one time trailing stop for the active trader to manage positional risk of an ongoing trade. As a crypto trader or Fx trader, many may find themselves in a position late into the evening, or perhaps daily life is calling while a trade progresses in their favor. Adding a trailing stop to a position thats trending can help to keep you in the trade and lock in gains if things turn around when you are unable to react.
To use the trail, the user would add the script to the chart. Once added, a set of crosshairs will appear allowing the user to choose a point to begin. Often choosing to start a trail from a swing high/ low can be an ideal option. This tends to provide some protection for a stop by placing it under support for a long trade or above resistance for a short trade.
Price based trail
The trail will automatically plot and the offset is a factor of the distance from price action selected by the crosshairs. If placed above price action the script will plot a short trail, if placed below it will trail for a long position.
Additionally, there are several other trail types other than price based. There is also percent based, which offsets the trail as a percent from close. A hard stop is placed at the cross hair value, then once the distance is exceeded by the percentage specified, the trail begins.
There are 2 more volatility based trails. There is a PSAR trail which can provide quicker and tighter stops that accelerate with the trend locking in gains faster, and an ATR trail that keeps a distance from price action as a function of volatility. Volatility levels can be adjusted from the menu.
Volatility based trail (ATR)
Volatility based trail (PSAR)
Lastly, within the code for more the more technical savvy, is some starting setups for string alerts to be sent to exchanges via 3rd party or custom API applications. Some string manipulation is required for specific providers to meet their requirements, but there is some building block alerts that will take the ticker symbol, recognize the asset your trading (Fx, Crypto, etc) and take input quantity or exchange names from the settings via inputs.
Complex strings can be built to perform almost any trade related task when to comes to alerts via web hook. A little setup this way with some technology to back your system can mean a semi-automated half man, half machine setup that actually manages your trail stop while you cannot. For those that don’t go this far, there is some basic alert functionality that well trigger when a trail is hit so you can react and make a decision.
Please note that for now, interactive mode is engaged only when the script is added to the chart. Additional stops, or for adjustments to be made it is best to add a new version. Also as real trades could be at play managing an actual position, alerts are designed to go off only once to ensure no duplicate orders are sent meaning alerts are not reoccurring. Once an alert is triggered, a new trail is to be set up.
A modified version of the TradingView built in SAR equation was used in this script. To provide the value of the SAR on the stop candle, it was necessary to alter the equation to extract this value as the regular SAR “flips” at this point. Thank you to TradingView for supplying access to the built in formula so that this SAR could behave the same as the built-in function outside of these alterations
Example of SAR value maintained in trigger candle
Cheers and happy trading.
Bitcoin Risk Indicator (Daily)This indicator calculates the risk of buying and selling BTC, if the risk is reaching the upper boundaries of 0.8 to 1 then BTC is either getting close to a market cycle top or is far over extended.
If BTC is below 0.4 then this inidicates the least amount of Risk to buy BTC.
Risk Management Tool [LuxAlgo]Good money management is one of the fundamental pillars of successful trading. With this indicator, we propose a simple way to manage trading positions. This tool shows Profit & Loss (P&L), suggests position size given a certain risk, sets stop losses and take profit levels using fixed price value/percentage/ATR/Range, and can also determine entries from crosses with technical indicators which is particularly handy if you don't want to set an entry manually.
1. Settings
Position Type: Determines if the position should be a "Long" or "Short".
Account Size: Determines the total capital of the trading account.
Risk: The maximum risk amount for a trade. Can be set as a percentage of the account size or as a fixed amount.
Entry Price: Determines the entry price of the position.
Entry From Cross: When enabled, allows to set the entry price where a cross with an external source was produced.
1.1 Stop Loss/Take Profit
Take Profit: Determines the take profit level, which can be determined by a value or percentage.
Stop Loss: Determines the stop loss level, which can be determined by a value or percentage.
2. Usage
One of the main usages of position management tools is to determine the position size to allocate given a specific risk amount and stop-loss. 2% of your capital is often recommended as a risk amount.
Our tool allows setting stop losses and take profits with different methods.
The ATR method sets the stop loss/take profit one ATR away from the entry price, with the ATR period being determined in the drop-down menu next to the selected methods. The range method works similarly but instead of using the ATR, we use a rolling range with a period determined in the drop-down menu next to the selected methods as well.
Unlike the available position management tool on TradingView, the entry can be determined from a cross between the price an an external source. The image above shows entries from the Volatility Stop indicator. This is particularly useful if you set positions based on trailing stops.
Portfolio Tracker [Anan]█ OVERVIEW
A simple Portfolio Tracker to track your Profit/Loss for any ticker in any market (stock, futures, index, forex, crypto, fund, dr.).
You just need to input (Asset / Quantity / Avg. Buy/Sell Price) and the script will calculate everything.
Also, you can use it for paper trading, or even what-if cases..
█ FEATURES
- Up to 10 positions
- Track your position real-time price and 24H change %
- Calculate your position current value
- Calculate your position cost value
- Calculate Profit/Loss
- Calculate Profit/Loss %
- Change every color in the table as you like.
Pot SizeA little FREE script - which may help people set their trade size and stop levels for bitcoin trades.
NOTE :- This script conveys information that requires "indicator arguments" to be turned on.
TO USE :- To adjust to your requirements, click the cog wheel next to the indicator, and adjust "POT SIZE" (how much dollar you have), "RISK %" (the percentage of your dollar portfolio you would like to risk on this trade) and "BITCOIN AMOUNT" - until the short and long 'stop' lines are in the right place in your estimation, for a stop loss that represents the risk you want in relation to the current price for this trade.
The script takes its reference from the closing price; and doesn't include calculations for spread, fees, true range, and volatility etc. That is left open for anyone to add that if they wish. Anyone using this has to make their own adjustments for such considerations not being in this script and therefore make their own compensations.
Anyone wanting to change anything (because values don't go far enough for you) but doesn't know pinescript, can change the numbers next to "defval", "minval", "maxval", and "step" to their suiting in the script itself.
If you use this, you have to work out for yourself if it is useful for you or not. If you depend on it, you must have your own confidence that the calculations in it are acceptable and correct for your use, and you should check yourself and seek advice before trusting it. I convey no confidence in these calculations or this script, and they must be assumed to be acceptable by you if you use it.
Thanks
M
money managementthis indicator has been designed to make your calculations easier and faster.
you can use this indicator to set tp and sl prices based on your entry price, balance,risk and leverage.
it has been designed only for cryptocurrency market and it is not recommended to use it in other markets!
1- enter your balance in the setting of the indicator.
2- enter risk percentage of your balance.
3- enter your sl percentage.
4- enter your tp percentage.
5- set your leverage if you are trading in futures market.
6- and at last set your entry price.
your position size both in spot market and futures market and the exact price of tp and sl , will be shown top right of the screen.
caution: before using this indicator in real market, please make sure that you understand this indicator's behavior and test it.
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این اندیکاتور برای تسریع محاسبات مدیریت سرمایه و سهولت رعایت آن طراحی شده است.
شما میتوانید با وارد کردن پارامترهاقیمت ورودی، سرمایه کل، ریسک و اهرم، قیمت حد سود و ضرر خود را محاسبه کنید.
همچنین اندازه حجم معاملات شما توسط این اندیکاتور محاسبه خواهد شد.
این اندیکاتور برای بازار کریپتوکارنسی طراحی شده است و استفاده از آن در سایر بازارها پیشنهاد نمیشود.
از بخش تنظیمات اندیکاتورمراحل زیر را انجام دهید:
1- میزان سرمایه خود را در قسمت بالانس وارد کنید
2- میزان ریسک سرمایه در هر معامله را مشخص کنید (به درصد)
3- میزان حد ضرر خود را مشخص کنید (به درصد)
4- میزان حد سود خود را مشخص کنید (به درصد)
5- عدد اهرم خود را وارد کنید
6- قیمت ورود به معامله را وارد کنید
توجه: قبل از استفاده این اندیکاتور در بازار لایو لطفا آن را تست کنید و از کارکرد صحیح آن با مدیریت سرمایه خود اطمینان حاصل فرمایید.
Position Tracker by KrisWatersPosition tracker helps you to know "Stop" and "Take Profit" prices with provided "Entry Price" data. You can use on Long and Short setups.
Position calcCurrent script was created to help faster calculate possible gain or loss from a furure trade. Making money management a bit simpler, by changing values you can adjust proper trade leverage and see possible target values
Heisenberg's Uncertainty BandsHeisenberg's Uncertainty Bands:
This is a volatility indicator to determine and visualize the uncertainty in a securities' price.
In quantum mechanics, the uncertainty principle (also known as Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) is any of a variety of mathematical inequalities asserting a fundamental limit to the accuracy with which the values for certain pairs of physical quantities of a particle, such as position, x, and momentum, p, can be predicted from initial conditions.
It plots a Kalman filter average of the bars inside a higher timeframe bar, to attempt to find the most frequent price in that bar's timespan. To plot what is effectively a MA using POC (IvanLabrie's code, credits to the author).
It derives momentum from relative momentum, yielding results more sensitive to changes.
Then it uses Heisenberg's uncertainty principle to find an uncertainty range, and uses it as the channel distance from the POC MA, meaning price is likely to fluctuate within that range.
Since uncertainty must be greater than h/2, adding fib levels will make it a useful indicator. Essentially they are pseudo-Fibonacci Bollinger Bands, which uses a different calculation.
Benefits:
Prices fluctuate, and it can be helpful to visualize price as a range, rather than a single point or line. This visualization can help in managing risk, determining entries and exits, and prevent losing one's position due to price fluctuations during a trend.
If we use a particle model, the uncertainty principle dictates that it is impossible to predict the price within a range. This is a good model for risk management!
Usage:
There are 5 Fibonacci ratio outer bands that can be turned on or off according to user's preference.
Recommended that the length inputs should be increased in higher timeframes, to visualize trends, shorter timeframes should have lower lengths.
GLHF
- DPT
