PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 Mar 2023

3 thg 3, 2023

Well the day did not go as planned for me, if you have read my yesterday's report you might be cursing me by now.
I was pretty bearish, atleast that was what the 1hr chart told me. So when BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 40671 i thought the first resistance at 40698 will hold.

After a while i thought 40868 resistance might hold - and here is where i got the calculations pretty wrong. I had taken a bearish position anticipating a reversal. But what happened was a near vertical upmove with little or no pullback till 11.40.

A sharp upside move of 2.38% ~ 959pts by the 2hr 30mts. There was no major pullback or reversal. There was just a small pause at the 41311 resistance level.
But we cannot confirm that it was the resistance that came into play, the traders would have taken the profits & exited few positions. Its a weekend and we cannot really say how the US markets could react after we close.

SBIN up 5.14% INDUSINDBK up 2.21% HDFCBANK 1.95% KOTAKBANK & ICICIBANK up 1.7% - surely all the banks were on steroids today. Since i couldnt believe what was happening, i was caught like a deer in the headlamps. Almost couldnt take any trade to firefight my losing position.

So this not only negates my yesterday's bearish bias but changes the structure of the rally. Lets examine the 15mts & 1hr chart to get more clarity.

---

15mts shows the breakaway gap & the sharp surge. Remember yesterday i said the move on wednesday appears fake & the one on thursday shows an interim top like formation. Negate that !
I am still not bullish yet on 15mts - i am confused.

---

1hr shows the 2 strong green candles that followed the 5 red candles yesterday. What a stark contrast. Well i am still keeping bearish hopes alive on the 1hr Tf. You might think i am crazy. But still.
If 41600 gets taken out in the next session, you bet i will flip. Till then i will continue to look for shorting opportunities.