Originally posted on 3/12, but blocked b/c I referenced my X account. Looks like a bearish move could be materializing alongside broader risk asset weakness:
Is the
DAX topping out? Monthly RSI @ 80+ w/ weekly nosing over and daily bearish divergences observable. Index high from 3/6 coincided with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 11/2021-10/2022 uptrend correction.
Confirmation short setup could materialize $FDAX closes below pivot low of the 1D uptrend (22226), bounces off of short-term demand (ex: 22142-21691, and trades into supply ≥ 22226. This scenario is speculative - the market needs to show its hand.
Presently, DAX is up > 1.5% alongside US stocks, which dipped into intermediate-term demand and benefited from softer-than-expected CPI prints. However, DAX (and domestic) bulls haven't proven anything yet. Unless buyers manage to push the DAX higher - initially above 22900 and secondarily through 23000-23200 - on accelerating momentum, risk remains to the downside (IMO). German stocks have been global relative strength leaders as of late, so if they do correct, other equity indexes may retreat in tandem.
Long-term charts for US indices (
SPX, 
NDX, 
RUT) look more bearish vs. bullish (I still have some shorts on), though a near-term recovery is plausible. If domestic equities do trade lower, selling could materialize in Asian and European markets. Use LTF charts to monitor price action/manage risk and splice into shorts if German stocks 
EWG start to crack.
My $0.02. Feedback welcome.
Jon
Is the
DAX topping out? Monthly RSI @ 80+ w/ weekly nosing over and daily bearish divergences observable. Index high from 3/6 coincided with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 11/2021-10/2022 uptrend correction.Confirmation short setup could materialize $FDAX closes below pivot low of the 1D uptrend (22226), bounces off of short-term demand (ex: 22142-21691, and trades into supply ≥ 22226. This scenario is speculative - the market needs to show its hand.
Presently, DAX is up > 1.5% alongside US stocks, which dipped into intermediate-term demand and benefited from softer-than-expected CPI prints. However, DAX (and domestic) bulls haven't proven anything yet. Unless buyers manage to push the DAX higher - initially above 22900 and secondarily through 23000-23200 - on accelerating momentum, risk remains to the downside (IMO). German stocks have been global relative strength leaders as of late, so if they do correct, other equity indexes may retreat in tandem.
Long-term charts for US indices (
SPX, NDX, RUT) look more bearish vs. bullish (I still have some shorts on), though a near-term recovery is plausible. If domestic equities do trade lower, selling could materialize in Asian and European markets. Use LTF charts to monitor price action/manage risk and splice into shorts if German stocks EWG start to crack.My $0.02. Feedback welcome.
Jon
Ghi chú
Still in the mix. Let's see how things play out...
Thanks for reviewing my research! X follows appreciated! Handle: @JHartCharts
Posts/comments do not represent financial advice.
Posts/comments do not represent financial advice.
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Thanks for reviewing my research! X follows appreciated! Handle: @JHartCharts
Posts/comments do not represent financial advice.
Posts/comments do not represent financial advice.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.