US Dollar Index: Down YTD, But at a 5-Week High

The U.S. dollar plays a leading role in the performance of U.S. stocks versus international stocks. The greenback endured its worst first-half performance since 1973, helping ex-U.S. equities post massive absolute and relative gains through June. But could the narrative be shifting? And what might it mean for investors?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at a five-week high ahead of the July Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the key July jobs report to be released on August 1. Up four sessions in a row, the dollar appears poised to post its best month since last December (in fact, the DXY's first positive month of 2025). If it’s the start of a protracted recovery, then the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade could be back in vogue over the second half, resulting in the same old story of U.S. over international in the stock market.