The U.S. Dollar and The "Desperate Hand" Pattern
DXY, or the dollar index, has been in a downtrend since the very beginning. This is part of the reason why I'm invested in crypto, and why I think deflationary currencies will make a significant attempt to overtake inflationary currencies like the U.S. Dollar.
I think it's always good to look at where the supply zone was when an asset first comes on the market, as that often determines whether something is long term bearish, or long term bullish. In this case, the dollar index has a downward sloping supply zone (between the blue and orange diagonal lines). The blue line is where it was initially sold back in 1968, and has continuously failed to sustain above it. The people who stayed in Gold were smart. We have also recently formed a lower low, and a downtrend channel that has been acting as a new support (this is where the DXY spends most of its time these days, except when it ventures briefly up to the supply zone).
I also want to take this time to explain a pattern that I've found pretty often in observing markets. I call it the "desperate hand," since it resembles a hand reaching desperately for help as it falls into a bottomless pit. It is a powerful bearish reversal pattern that occurs when there is a large triple top or head and shoulders, followed by a drop below recent support. There is then a significant rebound that fails to get above that support, before falling down often at least twice as hard as the previous drop. The bottom is usually twice the distance of the neckline or "wrist" to the top. You can see that it happened to the DXY on its previous top in 2001 as well. I find that this pattern plays out the majority of the time (not 100%, but it's a VERY reliable indicator). I outlined it on this chart for fun.
Anyway, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a professional financial advisor. This is just an observation I've made, and I also just wanted to share this pattern. Maybe other people have a different name for it.
I think it's always good to look at where the supply zone was when an asset first comes on the market, as that often determines whether something is long term bearish, or long term bullish. In this case, the dollar index has a downward sloping supply zone (between the blue and orange diagonal lines). The blue line is where it was initially sold back in 1968, and has continuously failed to sustain above it. The people who stayed in Gold were smart. We have also recently formed a lower low, and a downtrend channel that has been acting as a new support (this is where the DXY spends most of its time these days, except when it ventures briefly up to the supply zone).
I also want to take this time to explain a pattern that I've found pretty often in observing markets. I call it the "desperate hand," since it resembles a hand reaching desperately for help as it falls into a bottomless pit. It is a powerful bearish reversal pattern that occurs when there is a large triple top or head and shoulders, followed by a drop below recent support. There is then a significant rebound that fails to get above that support, before falling down often at least twice as hard as the previous drop. The bottom is usually twice the distance of the neckline or "wrist" to the top. You can see that it happened to the DXY on its previous top in 2001 as well. I find that this pattern plays out the majority of the time (not 100%, but it's a VERY reliable indicator). I outlined it on this chart for fun.
Anyway, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a professional financial advisor. This is just an observation I've made, and I also just wanted to share this pattern. Maybe other people have a different name for it.
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I just love how that blue resistance line extends all the way back to 1968, and people are STILL selling there in the 21st century. Goes to show you how important psychological levels and patterns are in markets.
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This might be the beginning of the drop. It pushed a little higher since I posted this, but was immediately rejected.
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Looks like we're rallying higher for now, but we're entering a strong resistance zone. We could have a strong drop very soon. I will only abandon this bearish view if we break out convincingly above 100.
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Continuously facing resistance in the 97 area. Really not looking good, especially for the Dow.
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The breakdown is likely very soon.
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Looks like we've begun our descent. The stock market will likely follow once the rebound cools off and tech stocks form their second top or third shoulder (depending on their individual chart pattern).
