ES Futures — Plan for Fri, Aug 22

Intraday trend on 15m/30m remains down. The 6,396–6,407 band is the pivot/decision zone. Tomorrow’s session is dominated by Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote (10:00 ET) — plan around it.

Fundamentals & Risk Clock (ET)
• 10:00 — Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Treat this as the day’s primary catalyst; no new entries 09:55–10:05 per risk rules.  
• Otherwise, the U.S. calendar is relatively light vs. today’s prints; markets will key off the Powell tone and subsequent positioning.  

Structure Map (carry-forward levels)

Resistance / sell zones
• 6,396–6,407 (pivot/decision band) – acceptance above flips bias; failure sends us back inside the range.
• 6,412 → 6,418 – first upside magnets if the pivot breaks.
• 6,433–6,436 – underside of prior distribution (primary cap).
• 6,445–6,447 – secondary cap.
• 6,469–6,471 & 6,476 – upper supply/“failure” lines.

Support / buy zones
• 6,392–6,388 – LVN pocket; moves often accelerate through here.
• 6,386–6,382 – upper demand shelf.
• 6,375–6,370 – NY low cluster/first demand band.
• 6,366 → 6,357–6,352 – deeper HTF shelf if weakness extends.

Preferred Setup (A++): Range-Continuation Short

Take only with confirmation; score ≥9.
• Trigger: First 5-minute close ≤ 6,390.5 after a failed probe of 6,396–6,407, and the next bar fails to reclaim 6,392–6,394.
• Entry: 6,390.5 (MOS).
• Stop: 6,396.5 (≈6 pts).
• Targets:
• TP1: 6,375.5 (+15)
• TP2: 6,366.0 (+24)
• TP3: 6,358.0 (+32)
• Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move stop → BE only after a fresh 5m lower-low or a clean close through the TP1 zone. If no extension within 2×5m bars, cut to half/scratch.
• Disqualifiers: Thick support immediately stacks under entry or a 15m acceptance back above 6,396–6,407.

Flip Setup (A++ if accepted): Acceptance Long above Pivot

Counter-trend unless 15m turns; size accordingly.
• Trigger: First 5-minute close ≥ 6,407.5 and the next bar does not reclaim < 6,405.
• Entry: 6,407.5 (MOS).
• Stop: 6,401.5 (≈6 pts).
• Targets:
• TP1: 6,418.0 (+10.5 from trigger; acceptable given clean path)
• TP2: 6,435.0 (+27.5)
• TP3: trail toward 6,446+ if momentum persists.
• Disqualifier: Quick slip back < 6,405 after trigger.

Timing & Playbook
• Primary trade windows: 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:50–15:45 ET.
• Powell (10:00 ET): Plan around the speech; entries before the print must have exceptional quality, otherwise wait for post-event structure.
• MOC module (15:40–16:10 ET): Use the imbalance as a tiebreaker: modest (<$0.5B) = range; strong (≥$1B) can drive a directional push into the cross.