S 08/20 — Short bias below, Key Levels (watch FOMC minutes)

Overview
Higher-timeframe trend has shifted lower. After failing at ~6,476, price broke the 6,446 shelf and printed a new low near 6,419 with expanding volume. As long as we remain below 6,463, I keep a short bias and will fade bounces into supply.

Key Levels
• Line-in-the-sand: 6,463
• Resistance / Sell zones: 6,433–6,436, 6,445–6,447, 6,469–6,471, 6,476
• Supports / downside magnets: 6,419–6,418, 6,406–6,403, 6,392–6,388, 6,382–6,376

Primary Plan — Bearish continuation
• Prefer selling failed retests into 6,433–6,436 or 6,445–6,447.
• Targets: first back to 6,419–6,418, then 6,406–6,403, and if momentum persists 6,392–6,388 / 6,382–6,376.
• Confirmation I want to see: intraday rejection wicks at the zone, momentum rolling over, and sellers stepping back in.

Alternative — Breakdown
• If price accepts below 6,418, I’ll look for continuation toward 6,403, then 6,392 / 6,376.

Invalidation / Neutralization
• Reclaiming 6,463 neutralizes the immediate short bias.
• Acceptance ≥ 6,471–6,476 opens squeeze risk toward 6,491 / 6,500; I’d stand aside on shorts until structure turns back down.

Event Risk (ET) — Wed 08/20
• 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
• 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• 13:00 U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction
• 14:00 FOMC Minutes (Jul meeting)
Note: Expect headline-driven volatility around 14:00—I avoid initiating new positions into the release.

Posting Notes
This idea reflects levels visible on 1D/4H/1H (with 30m/15m for execution). I’ll update intraday if acceptance/rejection flips at the zones.