Trends show gradual incline but where is the bottom?

16 thg 11, 2022

So yet again things attempted to go into the no trend zone and failed. Ultimately, while we seem to be sneaking higher, I still think this is the top of the rally spectrum at the moment, and I don't believe in a full rally until I see a defined bottom.

On the short term, we see the 30m creating a bottom and a top and taking us higher, however, the 30m is not a long standing trend, and so I'm still curious to see where we go with our longer trends.

If you just want the trends and no video, here ya go;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3978 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3979 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High
Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

While the movement has been up, I still see a softening in our upward movement, and think it is a matter of time before we show some downtrends on the longer timeframes, even if they are higher lows.

In terms of Economic Data;
We have Retail Sales today. Will likely cause some movement in the market. Also FOMC Waller speaks at 14:35 EST. Waller is the most Hawkish of all the FOMC members (the very opposite of Brainard).

Earnings;
We have Lowes this morning, and then Cisco and NVidia after market close. All 3 should cause some movement in the markets.

Geopolitical Tensions;
With the missile hit in Poland, I'd keep an eye on how that all plays out.

My Sentiment going into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral with a slight bearish bias (I want to see longer term trends come into play).
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral...... just neutral for now.

I'm going to mark this as "Short" today, only because I just can't shake that we need to bring in a higher timeframe trend into the mix before we can go higher.

As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

Something I forgot to mention, is that ultimately the cluster of trend lines is approaching the current stall in the market we are at. They will likely be here by late tonight... so if we don't address them today, I would think we will address them tomorrow.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

Forgot about Target today... but it looks like Lowes beat estimates, but Target missed estimates.
Forgot TJX also and that looks like it beat estimates but had low sales.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

Ummm, Core Retail Sales beat estimates by over 1%.
Last month .1%, estimated to be .4% this month, and was 1.3%

Initial response is negative but looked like it mostly bounced back to where we left it.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

So in processing through the data... I think there will be some concern that retail sales are higher, but sales themselves don't appear much higher, so that could be a sign of sticking inflationary issues going forward.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

We have been hitting below the 30m uptrending downtrend line, and also we briefly hit up against the cluster of uptrend lines.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

We are above and below the defining trendline cluster. Definitely a defining support trend here. If momentum breaks through, then I suspect it will be the end of this rally.

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

So we are just entering below that zone... likely early yet to know if it sticks, if it does I expect there to be some support at the 6hr uptrend line which is around 3940

16 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

Oil Inventories came in immensely lower than expected. Likely from all the oil released by the White House to try and knock down gas prices during the elections. Initial response was up, but I see this as a concern that oil prices will go up and bleed back into inflationary issues.