Optimized Model ES S&R

21 thg 9, 2023

1. Introduction
Support and resistance levels are key concepts in technical analysis. Fractals are tools used in
technical analysis that help identify local tops and bottoms in charts. A fractal pattern consists of five
bars with the middle bar showing a high or low compared to the surrounding bars. In this report, we
used fractals with an optimized parameter to detect support and resistance levels.
2. Methodology
To identify the support and resistance levels, a fractal-based approach was utilized. The optimal
number of bars before and after the middle bar for fractal detection was determined to be 4 bars.
For each window, bullish (potential support) and bearish (potential resistance) fractals were
detected.

Table of Prices (Fractal-based)
Here are the detected resistance and support levels based on fractals:
Resistance: 3256.75 | Support: 2980.5
Resistance: 3433.5 | Support: 3168.25
Resistance: 3493.5 | Support: 3277.0
Resistance: 2992.25 | Support: 3308.75
Resistance: 3072.25 | Support: 2949.25
Resistance: 3054.25 | Support: 2281.25
Resistance: 3338.5 | Support: 2532.0
Resistance: 3402.25 | Support: 2824.5
Resistance: 3704.75 | Support: 2824.5
Resistance: 3547.5 | Support: 2878.25
Support and Resistance Levels Report
Resistance: 3669.0 | Support: 2867.5
Resistance: 3796.0 | Support: 3041.5
Resistance: 3765.0 | Support: 3101.25
Resistance: 3842.75 | Support: 3223.0
Resistance: 3959.5 | Support: 3462.5
Resistance: 3998.5 | Support: 3413.25
Resistance: 4095.5 | Support: 3326.0
Resistance: 4070.75 | Support: 3353.0
Resistance: 4124.5 | Support: 3757.0
Resistance: 4329.5 | Support: 3732.25
Resistance: 4357.0 | Support: 3788.75
Resistance: 4384.25 | Support: 3876.75
Resistance: 4413.75 | Support: 3792.75
Resistance: 4540.0 | Support: 3856.75
Resistance: 4578.0 | Support: 3989.25
Resistance: 4632.0 | Support: 4256.5
Resistance: 4705.0 | Support: 4266.5
Resistance: 4636.75 | Support: 4175.25
Resistance: 4586.25 | Support: 4311.25
Resistance: 4876.5 | Support: 4282.25
Resistance: 4905.25 | Support: 4434.75
Resistance: 4914.75 | Support: 4379.5
Resistance: 4979.75 | Support: 4520.75
Resistance: 4911.0 | Support: 4503.25
Resistance: 4757.5 | Support: 4458.5
Support and Resistance Levels Report
Resistance: 4756.0 | Support: 4424.75
Resistance: 4590.25 | Support: 4790.0
Resistance: 4811.0 | Support: 4656.75
Resistance: 4689.0 | Support: 4691.75
Resistance: 4275.0 | Support: 4744.25
Resistance: 4382.25 | Support: 4384.25
Resistance: 4128.5 | Support: 4273.25
Resistance: 4100.5 | Support: 4310.25
Resistance: 4506.0 | Support: 4309.5
Resistance: 4335.25 | Support: 4236.0
Resistance: 3980.25 | Support: 4035.0
Resistance: 4088.25 | Support: 3987.5
Resistance: 4211.0 | Support: 3817.5
Resistance: 4270.25 | Support: 3919.75
Resistance: 4308.25 | Support: 3902.25
Resistance: 4336.75 | Support: 4091.75
Resistance: 4314.75 | Support: 4062.0
Resistance: 4210.75 | Support: 3732.0
Resistance: 4167.25 | Support: 3662.25
Resistance: 4265.25 | Support: 3864.5
Resistance: 4291.75 | Support: 4072.75
Resistance: 4299.75 | Support: 4101.5
Resistance: 4266.75 | Support: 4074.25
Resistance: 4320.75 | Support: 3916.75
Resistance: 4543.25 | Support: 4030.0
Support and Resistance Levels Report
Resistance: 4547.5 | Support: 4189.0
Resistance: 4658.75 | Support: 4053.25
Resistance: 4684.0 | Support: 3932.75
Resistance: 4597.25 | Support: 4162.25
Resistance: 4566.0 | Support: 4155.75
Resistance: - | Support: 4205.25
Resistance: - | Support: 4207.5
Resistance: - | Support: 4418.0
Resistance: - | Support: 4460.75
Resistance: - | Support: 4399.5
Resistance: - | Support: 4414.75
Resistance: - | Support: 4483.75
5. Conclusion and Insights
The detected support and resistance levels based on fractals provide insights into potential price
reversal points. These levels can help traders identify potential buy or sell opportunities
The returns for the last quarter have a mean of approximately
0.00053
0.00053 (or 0.053%) and a standard deviation of approximately
0.0103
0.0103 (or 1.03%).

Now, let's determine the probability of a market regime change:

If the return for the current trading session is greater than
mean+2×stdmean+2×std or less than mean−2×stdmean−2×std,
this might indicate a significant deviation from the norm, suggesting a potential regime change.
If the return for the current trading session is less than
mean
−
2
×
std
mean−2×std, it's significantly negative, suggesting a higher probability of entering a downtrend.
Based on the current trading session's return and the statistical analysis:

Market Regime Change: The return for the current trading session does not significantly deviate from the norm (beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean). Thus, there's no strong indication of a market regime change.
Downtrend: The return for the current trading session is not significantly negative (beyond 2 standard deviations below the mean), suggesting that there's no strong indication of entering a downtrend.

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