🛢 #SinnSeed | ROSNEFT (ROSN) | Overview: News, Financials, Forecast 🔗
🖥 Latest Developments & Impact on Stock Price
⚠️ Sanctions & Exports. In October 2025, the US included #Rosneft (along with #Lukoil ) in a new sanctions package. The consequences are already being felt:
🔴 Exports plunged ~32% by December 2025 — the Urals discount widened to 25 USD/bbl 🔴 Oil volumes stuck on tankers at sea — shares dropped 3.8–5.6% depending on the exchange 🔴 India's imports of Russian oil fell to the lowest since 2022 — ~1.1M bbl/day in January 2026
⚠️ The PCK Schwedt Problem. The German refinery, held under trust management, remains a point of tension. Sanctions threaten fuel supplies to Berlin. Rosneft has officially warned of the risks — deadline April 29, 2026.
💥 Incidents & Production. A series of #drone attacks in November–December 2025 damaged oil depots and #refineries . The result — a loss of 350K bbl/day in January 2026. No major new contracts. The company is pivoting to the domestic market and counting on tax incentives of ~10B RUB/year for 2026–2030.
📉 Combined effect: shares have lost 12–15% since October 2025. Financial crisis. H1 2025 profit collapsed by 68%. #CEO Sechin publicly blames Western restrictions. 🤥
📊 Financial Analysis | 9M 2025 (IFRS)
🔻 Revenue → 6,288B RUB (−17.8% YoY) 🔻 EBITDA → 1,641B RUB (−29.3% YoY) 🔻 Net Income → 277B RUB (−70.1% YoY) ▪️ Free Cash Flow → 591B RUB 🔻 Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.3x ▪️ Total Debt → ~36B USD
Quarterly Profit Dynamics: Q1 → 170B ▸ Q2 → 74B ▸ Q3 → 32B RUB The trend is clear — an accelerating decline. 🔽
Key Pressure Drivers:
🔻 Low oil prices + market surplus (~2.6M bbl/day) 🔻 Ruble appreciation eating into RUB-denominated revenue (thanks to the NWF and the fiscal rule) 🔻 High CBR key rate → debt servicing costs +2.5–3.8B USD 🔻 Declining gas production (−13.1%) and refining (−7.8%)
🔮 Forecast Through August 2026
The base case assumes continued sanctions pressure and a market surplus of ~2.4M bbl/day in 2026.
Выручка: −10–15% YoY → ~8T RUB/year, assuming Urals doesn't hold above 50 USD Net Income: stabilization or −20% → ~300–350B RUB/year
🔸 Upside support — tax incentives and the Vostok Oil project (launch in 2026, target capacity up to 2M bbl/day by 2030)
Debt load: Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.5–1.7x, with risk of increased borrowings
Stock: — if oil > 60 USD → rebound potential +5–10% — if oil < 60 USD → further decline likely −5–10%
Technical Picture 👨💻
📉 A correction to the 38.2% level indicates a strong downtrend.
By 20.03.2026, I expect a drop to 325 RUB. Followed by a continuation to 290 RUB. A potential impulse move toward the 260–240 RUB zone is possible, after which a local reversal could be considered.
No buying before 260 RUB.
What do you think about the forecast? Share in the comments.
🖥 Latest Developments & Impact on Stock Price
⚠️ Sanctions & Exports. In October 2025, the US included #Rosneft (along with #Lukoil ) in a new sanctions package. The consequences are already being felt:
🔴 Exports plunged ~32% by December 2025 — the Urals discount widened to 25 USD/bbl 🔴 Oil volumes stuck on tankers at sea — shares dropped 3.8–5.6% depending on the exchange 🔴 India's imports of Russian oil fell to the lowest since 2022 — ~1.1M bbl/day in January 2026
⚠️ The PCK Schwedt Problem. The German refinery, held under trust management, remains a point of tension. Sanctions threaten fuel supplies to Berlin. Rosneft has officially warned of the risks — deadline April 29, 2026.
💥 Incidents & Production. A series of #drone attacks in November–December 2025 damaged oil depots and #refineries . The result — a loss of 350K bbl/day in January 2026. No major new contracts. The company is pivoting to the domestic market and counting on tax incentives of ~10B RUB/year for 2026–2030.
📉 Combined effect: shares have lost 12–15% since October 2025. Financial crisis. H1 2025 profit collapsed by 68%. #CEO Sechin publicly blames Western restrictions. 🤥
📊 Financial Analysis | 9M 2025 (IFRS)
🔻 Revenue → 6,288B RUB (−17.8% YoY) 🔻 EBITDA → 1,641B RUB (−29.3% YoY) 🔻 Net Income → 277B RUB (−70.1% YoY) ▪️ Free Cash Flow → 591B RUB 🔻 Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.3x ▪️ Total Debt → ~36B USD
Quarterly Profit Dynamics: Q1 → 170B ▸ Q2 → 74B ▸ Q3 → 32B RUB The trend is clear — an accelerating decline. 🔽
Key Pressure Drivers:
🔻 Low oil prices + market surplus (~2.6M bbl/day) 🔻 Ruble appreciation eating into RUB-denominated revenue (thanks to the NWF and the fiscal rule) 🔻 High CBR key rate → debt servicing costs +2.5–3.8B USD 🔻 Declining gas production (−13.1%) and refining (−7.8%)
🔮 Forecast Through August 2026
The base case assumes continued sanctions pressure and a market surplus of ~2.4M bbl/day in 2026.
Выручка: −10–15% YoY → ~8T RUB/year, assuming Urals doesn't hold above 50 USD Net Income: stabilization or −20% → ~300–350B RUB/year
🔸 Upside support — tax incentives and the Vostok Oil project (launch in 2026, target capacity up to 2M bbl/day by 2030)
Debt load: Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.5–1.7x, with risk of increased borrowings
Stock: — if oil > 60 USD → rebound potential +5–10% — if oil < 60 USD → further decline likely −5–10%
Technical Picture 👨💻
📉 A correction to the 38.2% level indicates a strong downtrend.
By 20.03.2026, I expect a drop to 325 RUB. Followed by a continuation to 290 RUB. A potential impulse move toward the 260–240 RUB zone is possible, after which a local reversal could be considered.
No buying before 260 RUB.
What do you think about the forecast? Share in the comments.
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Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.