SWAG: Crypto Market Bears Coming
Channel and ascending wedge indicate bearish reversal imminent.
Long-term extreme bullish sentiment with emerging technology... does not mitigate market behavior on shorter time frames.
Major concern: Ethereum 2.0 unlocking will result in profit taking, significant selling pressure.
- Peak around 12/20
- Lower high late January
- Major retracement mid February
- Short, fast wick to bottom of channel
- Quick recovery to upper half of channel
Notes:
1. Assumption: Ceteris paribus
2. Potential catalyst changing market dynamics... examples that will change current expectations:
a. US Crypto Spot ETF approval (US >50% of all ETF's globally, massive foreign investments in US ETF's)
b. Global economic recession driven by massive spending by governments past 2 years
c. Black swan events (positive or negative) - something like governmental debt forgiveness or reset of currency policies
SWAG: Scientific Wild-A$$ed Guess
Long-term extreme bullish sentiment with emerging technology... does not mitigate market behavior on shorter time frames.
Major concern: Ethereum 2.0 unlocking will result in profit taking, significant selling pressure.
- Peak around 12/20
- Lower high late January
- Major retracement mid February
- Short, fast wick to bottom of channel
- Quick recovery to upper half of channel
Notes:
1. Assumption: Ceteris paribus
2. Potential catalyst changing market dynamics... examples that will change current expectations:
a. US Crypto Spot ETF approval (US >50% of all ETF's globally, massive foreign investments in US ETF's)
b. Global economic recession driven by massive spending by governments past 2 years
c. Black swan events (positive or negative) - something like governmental debt forgiveness or reset of currency policies
SWAG: Scientific Wild-A$$ed Guess
