MARKETS week ahead: December 24 - 30
Last week in the news
During the previous week the Western markets were preparing for the forthcoming Holiday session before the year-end. The positive market sentiment continued to prevail on the markets, as traders were preparing to book profits this year. The US equity markets were closed higher from the week before, with S&P 500 closing the week at yearly highs. Gold continued to hold above $2K level, as USD was losing some of its value. The US Treasuries continue to be in the spotlight of the market, with decreasing yields and increased prices. The crypto market finished the week also in a positive sentiment, where BTC is ending another week modestly below the $44K.
After the Fed decided to keep its interest rates unchanged in December, the markets got a new level of optimism, wondering when the first pivoting point will occur. The majority still perceive that the Q1 of next year could mark the start of Fed`s cutting interest rates. As for Powell's rhetoric, the Fed is still not thinking about this step. Certainly, by their projections, it is clear that rate cuts will occur during the course of 2024, where the expected rate at the end of the year ahead would be 4.6%. The dynamics of rate cuts would certainly depend on the inflation behavior in the coming period. During the previous week the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was published for November, showing further relaxation in inflation in November. The index was standing at 3.2% for the year, while core PCE was up 0.1%, for the month, which was below Fed`s expectations. This is an indication to markets that the inflation will most probably continue to move within the down-road, decreasing the probability of any sort of rate increases in the coming period, while at the same time increasing the probability that the Fed might cut rates sooner than expected.
Last week in the news was an astonishing yearly result of the British fin tech company Revoult. Its revenues have increased by 45%, for the year, regardless of a drop in net profits to 6 million pounds. The company has a significant base of clients, reaching 26.2 million, and has filed with the British authorities to obtain the banking license. Revoult is by far the most valuable start-up in Britain.
As markets are still focused on a question whether the first BTC ETF will be approved or not, the SEC continues to be focused on making some order within the crypto industry. Last week, SEC Chair Gensler commented that frauds continue to be one of the main concerns for regulators within the crypto industry and its full compliance with the regulation. Last week BarnBridge DAO, a company within the crypto industry, made a settlement with SEC, in order to settle SEC`s allegations. Total agreed amount to be paid by BarnBridge is $1.7 million. The SEC accused the company for offering illegal securities in crypto to the U.S investors. This refers to their product called SMART Yield.
Crypto market cap
The year-end market optimism was holding also on the crypto market during the whole last month. Although the initial frenzy was initiated by the stories related to the first BTC ETF fund, still, during the second half of December, US macro fundamentals left their mark on the positive market sentiment. Two weeks ago, there was a small correction in this cycle, however, the last trading week brought some profit-taking season also on the crypto market. A clear slow down in the US inflation, as well as anticipation that the Fed might quite soon start with rate cuts, increased the appetite in investors to search for riskier assets in order to increase their potential for profitability in the year to come. Despite some volatility during the course of this year, the crypto market is managing to end the year 116% higher from the end of the previous year. Total crypto market capitalization was increased during the previous week by another 6%, adding a total of $88B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes continue to be at a higher level, moving around $127B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 116%, where it has added a total $874B to the market cap.
Regardless of a general increase in cap during the previous week, not all coins contributed to it. It was another week with domination of Bitcoin and Ether, while some other altcoins ended the week with a small decrease in value. BTC has another positive week, where it has increased its value by 3.56% on a weekly basis, followed by ETH, which managed to add 2.11% w/w.
Ethereum Classic was also in the spotlight of investors, where the coin managed to increase its value by 4.6%. Few of altcoins had excellent performance during the week, where Solana managed to increase its cap by an incredible 27.13% w/w, while Algorand was up by 17.03%. From other coins, it should be mentioned Binance Coin, with an increase in value by 9.54%, NEO was up by almost 8% on a weekly basis, while LINK added 7.92% to its cap. On a losing track were DOGE and Cardano, which both decreased their cap by more than 1% while Miota was down by 2.6% on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes on a weekly basis. Certainly, this does not include Tether, which continues to strongly add its circulating coins, adding new 0.14% during the previous week.
Crypto futures market
Positive market sentiment was also reflected on the crypto futures market, and this time especially in long term crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded above 3% higher, in line with the spot market. December 2024 ended the week at a price of $43.815. It was interesting to see that BTC long term futures are still trading higher, where December 2024 ended the week at $47.340, while those futures maturing in March 2025 were last traded at price $48.215 or even 2.6% higher from the week before. These are reflections of a positive sentiment for the future value of BTC, as the market is currently not expecting that the BTC`s price might return to some lower levels from current.
ETH futures were also traded higher, less than 3% compared to the week before. Futures maturing in December were closed at 2.97% higher value from the week before, closing at $2.324. Those futures maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.500, for the first time since last year. However, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $2.408, expressing market insecurity whether ETH could sustain these levels on a longer run.
During the previous week the Western markets were preparing for the forthcoming Holiday session before the year-end. The positive market sentiment continued to prevail on the markets, as traders were preparing to book profits this year. The US equity markets were closed higher from the week before, with S&P 500 closing the week at yearly highs. Gold continued to hold above $2K level, as USD was losing some of its value. The US Treasuries continue to be in the spotlight of the market, with decreasing yields and increased prices. The crypto market finished the week also in a positive sentiment, where BTC is ending another week modestly below the $44K.
After the Fed decided to keep its interest rates unchanged in December, the markets got a new level of optimism, wondering when the first pivoting point will occur. The majority still perceive that the Q1 of next year could mark the start of Fed`s cutting interest rates. As for Powell's rhetoric, the Fed is still not thinking about this step. Certainly, by their projections, it is clear that rate cuts will occur during the course of 2024, where the expected rate at the end of the year ahead would be 4.6%. The dynamics of rate cuts would certainly depend on the inflation behavior in the coming period. During the previous week the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was published for November, showing further relaxation in inflation in November. The index was standing at 3.2% for the year, while core PCE was up 0.1%, for the month, which was below Fed`s expectations. This is an indication to markets that the inflation will most probably continue to move within the down-road, decreasing the probability of any sort of rate increases in the coming period, while at the same time increasing the probability that the Fed might cut rates sooner than expected.
Last week in the news was an astonishing yearly result of the British fin tech company Revoult. Its revenues have increased by 45%, for the year, regardless of a drop in net profits to 6 million pounds. The company has a significant base of clients, reaching 26.2 million, and has filed with the British authorities to obtain the banking license. Revoult is by far the most valuable start-up in Britain.
As markets are still focused on a question whether the first BTC ETF will be approved or not, the SEC continues to be focused on making some order within the crypto industry. Last week, SEC Chair Gensler commented that frauds continue to be one of the main concerns for regulators within the crypto industry and its full compliance with the regulation. Last week BarnBridge DAO, a company within the crypto industry, made a settlement with SEC, in order to settle SEC`s allegations. Total agreed amount to be paid by BarnBridge is $1.7 million. The SEC accused the company for offering illegal securities in crypto to the U.S investors. This refers to their product called SMART Yield.
Crypto market cap
The year-end market optimism was holding also on the crypto market during the whole last month. Although the initial frenzy was initiated by the stories related to the first BTC ETF fund, still, during the second half of December, US macro fundamentals left their mark on the positive market sentiment. Two weeks ago, there was a small correction in this cycle, however, the last trading week brought some profit-taking season also on the crypto market. A clear slow down in the US inflation, as well as anticipation that the Fed might quite soon start with rate cuts, increased the appetite in investors to search for riskier assets in order to increase their potential for profitability in the year to come. Despite some volatility during the course of this year, the crypto market is managing to end the year 116% higher from the end of the previous year. Total crypto market capitalization was increased during the previous week by another 6%, adding a total of $88B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes continue to be at a higher level, moving around $127B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 116%, where it has added a total $874B to the market cap.
Regardless of a general increase in cap during the previous week, not all coins contributed to it. It was another week with domination of Bitcoin and Ether, while some other altcoins ended the week with a small decrease in value. BTC has another positive week, where it has increased its value by 3.56% on a weekly basis, followed by ETH, which managed to add 2.11% w/w.
Ethereum Classic was also in the spotlight of investors, where the coin managed to increase its value by 4.6%. Few of altcoins had excellent performance during the week, where Solana managed to increase its cap by an incredible 27.13% w/w, while Algorand was up by 17.03%. From other coins, it should be mentioned Binance Coin, with an increase in value by 9.54%, NEO was up by almost 8% on a weekly basis, while LINK added 7.92% to its cap. On a losing track were DOGE and Cardano, which both decreased their cap by more than 1% while Miota was down by 2.6% on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes on a weekly basis. Certainly, this does not include Tether, which continues to strongly add its circulating coins, adding new 0.14% during the previous week.
Crypto futures market
Positive market sentiment was also reflected on the crypto futures market, and this time especially in long term crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded above 3% higher, in line with the spot market. December 2024 ended the week at a price of $43.815. It was interesting to see that BTC long term futures are still trading higher, where December 2024 ended the week at $47.340, while those futures maturing in March 2025 were last traded at price $48.215 or even 2.6% higher from the week before. These are reflections of a positive sentiment for the future value of BTC, as the market is currently not expecting that the BTC`s price might return to some lower levels from current.
ETH futures were also traded higher, less than 3% compared to the week before. Futures maturing in December were closed at 2.97% higher value from the week before, closing at $2.324. Those futures maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.500, for the first time since last year. However, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $2.408, expressing market insecurity whether ETH could sustain these levels on a longer run.
