10y has been rocketing ahead of the 30y, the brief respite in Markets may be attributed to the 3 day backtest shown here.
The case for more pain in broad equities: - The backtest holds around this level. ST rates continue to outperform LT rates killing expectations of economic strength.
The case for gains: - The 30y catches up or the 10y falls, and this backtest fails for a time. Typical charts often find the first rebound from a serious crash to be exhausted easily. This gives us the possibility that 10y could cool off for some time, allowing the SMAs to reconnect. Intermediate strength may come through and allow for broader market strength.
The case for more pain in broad equities: - The backtest holds around this level. ST rates continue to outperform LT rates killing expectations of economic strength.
The case for gains: - The 30y catches up or the 10y falls, and this backtest fails for a time. Typical charts often find the first rebound from a serious crash to be exhausted easily. This gives us the possibility that 10y could cool off for some time, allowing the SMAs to reconnect. Intermediate strength may come through and allow for broader market strength.
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Textbook BT of the line, , wicking slightly over so could be a 'soft' line.. The Weekly finish here will be very telling
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Yield Curve
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about US30Y/US10Y