Ruble Being Crushed By The $ - 80 to 1
Many so-called "experts" claimed that sanctions were ineffective, citing the fact that the Russian ruble had been artificially lowered to 50 rubles per dollar (as if this were a positive outcome).
However, in reality, when a country is heavily sanctioned and isolated from the rest of the world, its imports decrease significantly while oil exports remain constant. Additionally, due to the ongoing conflict,
oil prices rose, creating the false impression that a higher level of foreign reserves (exports minus imports) was sustainable and beneficial. In actuality, the gains from X-M were unsustainable, and would eventually
lead to economic collapse. Essentially, Russia sacrificed its entire economy for the short-term appearance of a strengthened ruble.
I pointed this out to many "experts" back then but they were either too ignorant to understand it or too worried about the click bait to care. Today we all see the reality of RUB to USD 80 to 1. a 55% appreciation.
While this is not important since almost no one traded RUBUSD it is important in better understanding FX and not being fooled by those who call themselves "Experts" or those who wish to push Russian propaganda.
If you did not read my previous posts about the BRIC's here is a link.
However, in reality, when a country is heavily sanctioned and isolated from the rest of the world, its imports decrease significantly while oil exports remain constant. Additionally, due to the ongoing conflict,
oil prices rose, creating the false impression that a higher level of foreign reserves (exports minus imports) was sustainable and beneficial. In actuality, the gains from X-M were unsustainable, and would eventually
lead to economic collapse. Essentially, Russia sacrificed its entire economy for the short-term appearance of a strengthened ruble.
I pointed this out to many "experts" back then but they were either too ignorant to understand it or too worried about the click bait to care. Today we all see the reality of RUB to USD 80 to 1. a 55% appreciation.
While this is not important since almost no one traded RUBUSD it is important in better understanding FX and not being fooled by those who call themselves "Experts" or those who wish to push Russian propaganda.
If you did not read my previous posts about the BRIC's here is a link.
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Ruble continues to weaken by the day at an alarming rate for the Russian people.
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Russia tried to defend the Ruble. Not doing a good job of it.
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Q Can't understand: is not exactly how it was before the war and from the 2020?
Answer @stefanoborghi, No. This is far worse. Before the war, there were no sanctions and imports flowed.
Now imports have collapsed leaving only exports. This creates a build-up of foreign reserves.
Intuitively one would think this is good and strengthen the Ruble. However, the real economy has suffered without
imports. Many biz that sold imports are going out of biz or struggling to survive. This kills the economy
and the currency. Factor in the 1 million men that were drafted, 200k dead, wounded, captured or still fighting with
the 1 million additional men and women who have fled Russia and you have yourself in an economic disaster
area.
Not to mention the sell of oil is now sold for a huge discount to market prices. Black market exchange
is up to 250 rubles to $1 the further away one is from Moscow.
Collapsing the economy from 5% growth to 4% contraction (-9%) is like hitting a brick wall at top speed in a Lambo!
11% Inflation makes it even worse! Any economic positive news is in working for the war machine. But that is catastrophic
in of itself as bombs bullets tanks are not an investment in the future economy. They go poof and that's it. When the war
ends then what? The entire economy will collapse into a depression. Russia is on the verge of a humanitarian crisis again!
Answer @stefanoborghi, No. This is far worse. Before the war, there were no sanctions and imports flowed.
Now imports have collapsed leaving only exports. This creates a build-up of foreign reserves.
Intuitively one would think this is good and strengthen the Ruble. However, the real economy has suffered without
imports. Many biz that sold imports are going out of biz or struggling to survive. This kills the economy
and the currency. Factor in the 1 million men that were drafted, 200k dead, wounded, captured or still fighting with
the 1 million additional men and women who have fled Russia and you have yourself in an economic disaster
area.
Not to mention the sell of oil is now sold for a huge discount to market prices. Black market exchange
is up to 250 rubles to $1 the further away one is from Moscow.
Collapsing the economy from 5% growth to 4% contraction (-9%) is like hitting a brick wall at top speed in a Lambo!
11% Inflation makes it even worse! Any economic positive news is in working for the war machine. But that is catastrophic
in of itself as bombs bullets tanks are not an investment in the future economy. They go poof and that's it. When the war
ends then what? The entire economy will collapse into a depression. Russia is on the verge of a humanitarian crisis again!
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Russian money supply has risen 28% since the start of the war and it will only get worse.
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Ruble struggling to hold on to 80.
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USD against the Russian Ruble is on the verge of busting out.
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USD breaking out against the Ruble. Now 82.45 to buy $1
Remember "sanctions don't work." LOL!
Remember "sanctions don't work." LOL!
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The Russian Ruble continues its collapse
84.65 for $1
Remember "sanctions don't work." LOL!
84.65 for $1
Remember "sanctions don't work." LOL!
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Who wants to buy cheap, cheap rubles now?
I am glad to see the BRICS are doing GRRRREAT!
I am glad to see the BRICS are doing GRRRREAT!
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Russian Ruble Weakens after Munity The Russian ruble touched 87 per
USD before settling near 85, the weakest since March 2022, amid increasing political turmoil in the country following an aborted mutiny during the weekend...
Western Sanctions Don't Work See?
Another Great Call!
USD before settling near 85, the weakest since March 2022, amid increasing political turmoil in the country following an aborted mutiny during the weekend...
Western Sanctions Don't Work See?
Another Great Call!
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Ruble continues to collapse 87.72
Remember sanctions don't work! BRICS doing GRRRREAT!
Remember sanctions don't work! BRICS doing GRRRREAT!
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Ruble breaks 90 as expected. The Collapse continues
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The Russian Ruble crash continues breaking 92
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Ruble 94! KABOOM!
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Russian Ruble collapsing 95.86 to buy $1
Western Sanctions Don't Work See?
Putinsism is a bad disease!
Western Sanctions Don't Work See?
Putinsism is a bad disease!
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Yes just that quickly the Ruble hit 99.58.
As expected.
As expected.
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RUSSIA'S CENTRAL BANK RAISES KEY INTEREST RATE BY 350 BASIS POINTS TO 12.0% FROM 8.50% AT AN EMERGENCY MEETING
LOL! Told ya! They are in deep doodooo!
LOL! Told ya! They are in deep doodooo!
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Remember they keep telling you sanctions don't work. However Russia is the #1 economy that had a shining GDP.
Shrinking economies 2022-2023:
🇷🇺 Russia: -$152 Billion
🇪🇬 Egypt: -$88 Billion
🇨🇦 Canada: -$50 Billion
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: -$46 Billion
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: -$46 Billion
🇳🇴 Norway: -$25 Billion
🇰🇼 Kuwait: -$19 Billion
🇴🇲 Oman: -$9.77 Billion
🇨🇴 Colombia: -$9.25 Billion
🇦🇪 UAE: -$8.56 Billion
🇿🇦 South Africa: -$6.69 Billion
🇬🇭 Ghana: -$6.22 Billion
🇶🇦 Qatar: -$5.91 Billion
🇦🇴 Angola: -$3.54 Billion
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: -$3.09 Billion
🇺🇦 Ukraine: -$2.79 Billion
Shrinking economies 2022-2023:
🇷🇺 Russia: -$152 Billion
🇪🇬 Egypt: -$88 Billion
🇨🇦 Canada: -$50 Billion
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: -$46 Billion
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: -$46 Billion
🇳🇴 Norway: -$25 Billion
🇰🇼 Kuwait: -$19 Billion
🇴🇲 Oman: -$9.77 Billion
🇨🇴 Colombia: -$9.25 Billion
🇦🇪 UAE: -$8.56 Billion
🇿🇦 South Africa: -$6.69 Billion
🇬🇭 Ghana: -$6.22 Billion
🇶🇦 Qatar: -$5.91 Billion
🇦🇴 Angola: -$3.54 Billion
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: -$3.09 Billion
🇺🇦 Ukraine: -$2.79 Billion
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Ruble getting crushed! now 100 to buy $1
As expected.
MAGIC!
As expected.
MAGIC!
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Russia has now increased its money supply by an unbelievable 57% since the start of the war. As a result, the Ruble is collapsing with no end in sight. Even with rates at 16%.
As I expected.
Click follow for more great content.
As I expected.
Click follow for more great content.
Real Macro Economic Investing
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