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Coin Jin Multi SMA+ BB+ SMA forecast Ver 2.0Coin Jin Multi SMA + BB + SMA Forecast 2.0 개요 여러 개의 단순이동평균(SMA: 5/20/60/112/224/448/896 + 사용자 정의 X1/X2), 볼린저 밴드(BB), 그리고 접선 기반 곡선 예측선을 한 번에 표시합니다. 예측선은 선형회귀 기울기와 그 변화율(가속도)을 EMA로 스무딩해 곡선 외삽으로 앞으로 그려지며, 어떤 줌에서도 깔끔하게 보이도록 점선(dotted) 스타일을 강제할 수 있습니다. 스택 마커(정배열/역배열) 안내 조건: 이동평균이 정배열(5>20>60>112>224>448>(896)) 또는 역배열(5<20<60<112<224<448<(896))로 새로 전환되는 순간 삼각형 마커가 생성됩니다. 896일선 포함(with 896): SOLID 마커로 표시, Bull = 초록색, Bear = 빨간색. 896일선 미포함(no 896): HOLLOW(윤곽) 마커로 표시, 시선을 덜 끌도록 투명도 70 적용(Bull = 연두, Bear = 빨강 동일색). 방향: Bull = ▼(위, abovebar) / Bear = ▲(아래, belowbar) 로 배치됩니다. 주요 기능 SMA 7종 기본 + 사용자 정의 SMA 2개(X1/X2) 추가(기본 꺼짐, 길이/색/두께/타입 자유). BB: 길이/배수/선두께/밴드 채움(기본 90% 투명) 지원. 예측선: Forward bars(1–100, 기본 30), 기울기 산출 길이, 스무딩 강도, 세그먼트 개수, 점/대시 스타일 선택 및 도트 강제. 스택(정/역배열) 전환 마커: with 896=SOLID, no 896=HOLLOW(투명도 70). 처음 사용하는 분들을 위한 팁 (중요) 가격 스케일을 ‘우측’으로 고정하세요. 방법 ① 차트 우측 축을 사용(기본). 방법 ② 지표 레전드의 ‘⋯’ 메뉴 → Move to → Right scale. 예측선이 본선과 어긋나 보이면 스케일이 좌측/양측으로 되어 있거나 자동 합침된 경우이니 Right scale로 맞춰주세요. 입력 요약 MA Source, 각 SMA on/off·길이·색·두께·타입 BB length/mult/width/fill/opacity(기본 90) Forecast bars ahead(1–100), slope lookback, smoothing, segments, style/opacity, 적용 대상 선택(SMA별) 주의/면책 예측선은 가격 예언 도구가 아니라 시각적 외삽 보조지표입니다. 단독 매매 판단에 사용하지 마세요. 공개 스크린샷은 본 지표만 보이도록 깔끔하게 캡처해 주세요(다른 지표/드로잉 혼합 금지). 변경사항(v2.0) 곡선 예측선 안정화 및 도트 강제 개선. 스택 마커 no 896 상태 HOLLOW 투명도 70 적용(가독성 향상). 사용자 정의 SMA X1/X2 추가(기본 OFF). Coin Jin Multi SMA + BB + SMA Forecast 2.0 (English) Overview This indicator plots multiple Simple Moving Averages (SMA: 5/20/60/112/224/448/896 + two user-defined X1/X2), Bollinger Bands, and a tangent-based curved forecast in one overlay. The forecast extrapolates forward using the linear-regression slope and its rate of change (acceleration) smoothed by EMA, and you can force a dotted look so it stays clean at any zoom level. Stack Markers (Bullish/Bearish alignment) Markers appear only when a full bullish stack (5>20>60>112>224>448>(896)) or bearish stack (5<20<60<112<224<448<(896)) is newly formed. With 896 included: shown as SOLID triangles — Bull = green, Bear = red. Without 896: shown as HOLLOW (outline) with 70 transparency to reduce visual weight — Bull = lime, Bear = red (same hue). Orientation: Bull = ▼ abovebar, Bear = ▲ belowbar. Features 7 standard SMAs + two custom SMAs (X1/X2) (default OFF; fully configurable length/color/width/style). BB with length/multiplier/width/fill (default fill opacity 90%). Forecast controls: forward bars (1–100, default 30), slope window, smoothing, segment count, style/opacity, force dotted option. Stack markers: with 896 = SOLID, without 896 = HOLLOW (70 transparency). First-time setup (Important) Pin the indicator to the Right price scale. Option A: Use the right price axis. Option B: Indicator legend “⋯” → Move to → Right scale. If the forecast appears detached from the MA, your series is likely on the left/both scales; switch to Right scale. Inputs MA source; per-SMA on/off, length, color, width, style BB length/multiplier/width/fill/opacity (default 90) Forecast bars ahead (1–100), slope lookback, smoothing, segments, style/opacity, per-SMA apply switches Disclaimer The forecast is a visual extrapolation, not a price prediction. Do not use it alone to make trading decisions. For publication, please use a clean screenshot that shows only this indicator (no mixed overlays). What’s new in v2.0 More robust curved forecast with improved “force dotted” rendering. HOLLOW (no 896) markers now use 70 transparency for better readability. Added two user-defined SMAs (X1/X2), OFF by default.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của myjustapex
Bitcoin Power Law Clock [LuxAlgo]The Bitcoin Power Law Clock is a unique representation of Bitcoin prices proposed by famous Bitcoin analyst and modeler Giovanni Santostasi. It displays a clock-like figure with the Bitcoin price and average lines as spirals, as well as the 12, 3, 6, and 9 hour marks as key points in the cycle. 🔶 USAGE Giovanni Santostasi, Ph.D., is the creator and discoverer of the Bitcoin Power Law Theory. He is passionate about Bitcoin and has 12 years of experience analyzing it and creating price models. As we can see in the above chart, the tool is super intuitive. It displays a clock-like figure with the current Bitcoin price at 10:20 on a 12-hour scale. This tool only works on the 1D INDEX:BTCUSD chart. The ticker and timeframe must be exact to ensure proper functionality. According to the Bitcoin Power Law Theory, the key cycle points are marked at the extremes of the clock: 12, 3, 6, and 9 hours. According to the theory, the current Bitcoin prices are in a frenzied bull market on their way to the top of the cycle. 🔹 Enable/Disable Elements All of the elements on the clock can be disabled. If you disable them all, only an empty space will remain. The different charts above show various combinations. Traders can customize the tool to their needs. 🔹 Auto scale The clock has an auto-scale feature that is enabled by default. Traders can adjust the size of the clock by disabling this feature and setting the size in the settings panel. The image above shows different configurations of this feature. 🔶 SETTINGS 🔹 Price Price: Enable/disable price spiral, select color, and enable/disable curved mode Average: Enable/disable average spiral, select color, and enable/disable curved mode 🔹 Style Auto scale: Enable/disable automatic scaling or set manual fixed scaling for the spirals Lines width: Width of each spiral line Text Size: Select text size for date tags and price scales Prices: Enable/disable price scales on the x-axis Handle: Enable/disable clock handle Halvings: Enable/disable Halvings Hours: Enable/disable hours and key cycle points 🔹 Time & Price Dashboard Show Time & Price: Enable/disable time & price dashboard Location: Dashboard location Size: Dashboard size
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của LuxAlgo
16
LGMM (flat buffers) — multivariate poly + latent statesLGMM POLYNOMIAL BANDS — DISCOVER THE MARKET’S HIDDEN STATES Overview Latent-Gaussian-Mixture-Models (LGMMs) view price action as a mix of several invisible regimes: trending up, drifting sideways, sudden volatility spikes, and so on. A Gaussian Mixture learns these states directly from data and outputs, for every bar, the probability that the market is in each state. This indicator feeds those probabilities into a rolling polynomial regression that draws a fair-value line, then builds adaptive upper and lower bands. Band width expands when recent residuals are large *and* when the state mix is uncertain, and contracts when price is calm or one regime clearly dominates. Crossing back into the band from below generates a buy flag; crossing back into the band from above generates a sell flag (or take-profit for longs). Key Inputs Price source – default is Close; you can choose HL2, OHLC4, etc. Training window (bars) – look-back length for every retrain. 252 bars (one trading year) is a balanced default for US stocks on daily timeframe. Use fewer bars for intraday charts (say 7*24=168 for 1H bars on crypto), more for weekly periods. Polynomial degree – 1 for a straight trend line, 2 for a curved fit. Curved fits are better when the symbol shows persistent drift. Hidden states K – number of regimes the mixture tracks (1 to 3). Three states often map well to up-trend, chop, down-trend. Band width ×σ – multiplier on the entropy-weighted standard deviation. Smaller values (1.5-2) give more trades; larger values (2.5-3) give fewer, higher-conviction trades. Offline μ,σ pairs (optional) – paste component means and sigmas from an offline LGMM (format: mu1,sigma1;mu2,sigma2;…). Leave blank to let the script use its built-in approximation. Quick Start Add the indicator to a chart and wait until the initial Training window has filled. Watch for green BUY triangles when price closes back above the lower band and red SELL triangles when price closes back below the upper band. Fine-tune: – Increase Training window to reduce noise. – Decrease Band width ×σ for more frequent signals. – Experiment with Hidden states K; more states capture richer behaviour but need longer windows to stay reliable. Tips Bands widen automatically in chaotic periods and tighten when one regime dominates. Combine with a volume filter or a higher-time-frame trend to reduce whipsaws. If you already run an LGMM in Python or Matlab, paste its component parameters for a perfect match between your back-test and the TradingView plot. Works on all markets and time-frames, provided you have at least five times the Training window’s bars in history. Happy trading!
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của vsov
Relative Crypto Dominance Polar Chart [LuxAlgo]The Relative Crypto Dominance Polar Chart tool allows traders to compare the relative dominance of up to ten different tickers in the form of a polar area chart, we define relative dominance as a combination between traded dollar volume and volatility, making it very easy to compare them at a glance. 🔶 USAGE The use is quite simple, traders just have to load the indicator on the chart, and the graph showing the relative dominance will appear. The 10 tickers loaded by default are the major cryptocurrencies by market cap, but traders can select any ticker in the settings panel. Each area represents dominance as volatility (radius) by dollar volume (arc length); a larger area means greater dominance on that ticker. 🔹 Choosing Period The tool supports up to five different periods Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly By default, the tool period is set on auto mode, which means that the tool will choose the period depending on the chart timeframe timeframes up to 2m: Hourly timeframes up to 15m: Daily timeframes up to 1H: Weekly timeframes up to 4H: Monthly larger timeframes: Yearly 🔹 Sorting & Sizing Traders can sort the graph areas by volatility (radius of each area) in ascending or descending order; by default, the tickers are sorted as they are in the settings panel. The tool also allows you to adjust the width of the chart on a percentage basis, i.e., at 100% size, all the available width is used; if the graph is too wide, just decrease the graph size parameter in the settings panel. 🔹 Set your own style The tool allows great customization from the settings panel, traders can enable/disable most of the components, and add a very nice touch with curved lines enabled for displaying the areas with a petal-like effect. 🔶 SETTINGS Period: Select up to 5 different time periods from Hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Yearly. Enable/disable Auto mode. Tickers: Enable/disable and select tickers and colors 🔹 Style Graph Order: Select sort order Graph Size: Select percentage of width used Labels Size: Select size for ticker labels Show Percent: Show dominance in % under each ticker Curved Lines: Enable/disable petal-like effect for each area Show Title: Enable/disable graph title Show Mean: Enable/disable volatility average and select color
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của LuxAlgo
12
SandTigerSandTiger is an auto-counting tool that counts naturally occurring events in a price series. This version has been reduced to 377 lines of code and should run faster than previous versions. Although not shown here, I highly recommend running my 'ELB' script with SandTiger. ELB is an 'event locator' and will mark all points that SandTiger numbers - giving you visual cues as to where these points are located. ELB also displays support/resistance levels. SandTiger is designed to be used with MAGENTA - a counting system for Forex and other markets. MAGENTA is a free and open framework for understanding and explaining price movement in financial markets. Any materials associated with MAGENTA are strictly for educational purposes only. SandTiger tracks Component Values, Dyads, and Sum Table Values (STV's) over straight and curved trends, allowing a trader to discern where directional shifts are likely to occur. SandTiger requires just 3 things to function accurately: 1) A correct starting point (this will typically be an obvious trend turn high or low in a series of price moves). 2) A 'push 1' count ('push 1' runs from the starting point to the event prior to the first terminal of the first FCT or Fractured Counter-Trend). 3) A 'high prime' value (the high prime count runs from the starting point through to the second terminal of the first FCT with no skips). FRAMEWORK OVERVIEW: 'Component' values are filtered from the prime set (including the half prime and further reductions). Once we have the comp table we add the values to get a 'total'. With the 'total' we divide and multiply by two to get two additional values. 'Derivatives' are based on various calculations using these three values. We're looking for 'total/2' to count into either itself, 'total', 'total*2', or a derivative. Comp counts are in Tx form and counted from trend start. If the trend doesn't turn on a comp value it will likely turn on a Dyad or STV value. If that also doesn't happen it's likely you have a 'curved' trend/sequence that will turn on one of the above after moving away from its high/low. This can also be traded using SandTiger's 'Seg Terminals' skip option. Sum tables and Dyad values are drawn from the 'primes' and Dyads use the 'push1' value as well. In a structural trend, primes are gotten by counting pushpulls 1 & 2 in 'Ti' form. Comps, Sum table values, and Dyads are equivalent, sequences can turn on either value type belonging to the 1st or 2nd prime set. Both STV's and Dyads are counted in 'Tx' form (except where count-through signals occur). Types and antitypes correlate and are associated with a 12-count 'cycle.' (Ti = 'Terminals Included'; Tx = 'Terminals eXcluded'; both refer to FCT terminals) THE STRATEGY: For Structures: Trade Comps, Dyads, and STV's from sets 1 (all) and 2 (Dyads and STV's only) in the 'main' segment then on the 'carry-over' by skipping segment terminals. If a PC or cycle caps the sequence, trade that as well. For NSM's: Trade movements that flash a signal prior to the end of the initial cycle. The mark will be the push1 value. Twelve will be the 'high prime.' Skip interrupts and trade carry-over values. The first version of SandTiger was conceived/planned/authored by Erek A.D. and coded by Erek A.D. and @SimpleCryptoLife beginning in August 2022 and finishing in Dec. 2022 The current version was written and developed July 3, 2023 and has been refined and upgraded by Erek A.D. through Jan. 2024...
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của trendlab2
ZigzagLiteLibrary "ZigzagLite" Lighter version of the Zigzag Library. Without indicators and sub-component divisions method getPrices(pivots)   Gets the array of prices from array of Pivots   Namespace types: Pivot   Parameters:      pivots (Pivot ) : array array of Pivot objects   Returns: array array of pivot prices method getBars(pivots)   Gets the array of bars from array of Pivots   Namespace types: Pivot   Parameters:      pivots (Pivot ) : array array of Pivot objects   Returns: array array of pivot bar indices method getPoints(pivots)   Gets the array of chart.point from array of Pivots   Namespace types: Pivot   Parameters:      pivots (Pivot ) : array array of Pivot objects   Returns: array array of pivot points method getPoints(this)   Namespace types: Zigzag   Parameters:      this (Zigzag) method calculate(this, ohlc, ltfHighTime, ltfLowTime)   Calculate zigzag based on input values and indicator values   Namespace types: Zigzag   Parameters:      this (Zigzag) : Zigzag object      ohlc (float ) : Array containing OHLC values. Can also have custom values for which zigzag to be calculated      ltfHighTime (int) : Used for multi timeframe zigzags when called within request.security. Default value is current timeframe open time.      ltfLowTime (int) : Used for multi timeframe zigzags when called within request.security. Default value is current timeframe open time.   Returns: current Zigzag object method calculate(this)   Calculate zigzag based on properties embedded within Zigzag object   Namespace types: Zigzag   Parameters:      this (Zigzag) : Zigzag object   Returns: current Zigzag object method nextlevel(this)   Namespace types: Zigzag   Parameters:      this (Zigzag) method clear(this)   Clears zigzag drawings array   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawing   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawing ) : array   Returns: void method clear(this)   Clears zigzag drawings array   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawingPL   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawingPL ) : array   Returns: void method drawplain(this)   draws fresh zigzag based on properties embedded in ZigzagDrawing object without trying to calculate   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawing   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawing) : ZigzagDrawing object   Returns: ZigzagDrawing object method drawplain(this)   draws fresh zigzag based on properties embedded in ZigzagDrawingPL object without trying to calculate   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawingPL   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawingPL) : ZigzagDrawingPL object   Returns: ZigzagDrawingPL object method drawfresh(this, ohlc)   draws fresh zigzag based on properties embedded in ZigzagDrawing object   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawing   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawing) : ZigzagDrawing object      ohlc (float ) : values on which the zigzag needs to be calculated and drawn. If not set will use regular OHLC   Returns: ZigzagDrawing object method drawcontinuous(this, ohlc)   draws zigzag based on the zigzagmatrix input   Namespace types: ZigzagDrawing   Parameters:      this (ZigzagDrawing) : ZigzagDrawing object      ohlc (float ) : values on which the zigzag needs to be calculated and drawn. If not set will use regular OHLC   Returns: PivotCandle   PivotCandle represents data of the candle which forms either pivot High or pivot low or both   Fields:      _high (series float) : High price of candle forming the pivot      _low (series float) : Low price of candle forming the pivot      length (series int) : Pivot length      pHighBar (series int) : represents number of bar back the pivot High occurred.      pLowBar (series int) : represents number of bar back the pivot Low occurred.      pHigh (series float) : Pivot High Price      pLow (series float) : Pivot Low Price Pivot   Pivot refers to zigzag pivot. Each pivot can contain various data   Fields:      point (chart.point) : pivot point coordinates      dir (series int) : direction of the pivot. Valid values are 1, -1, 2, -2      level (series int) : is used for multi level zigzags. For single level, it will always be 0      ratio (series float) : Price Ratio based on previous two pivots      sizeRatio (series float) ZigzagFlags   Flags required for drawing zigzag. Only used internally in zigzag calculation. Should not set the values explicitly   Fields:      newPivot (series bool) : true if the calculation resulted in new pivot      doublePivot (series bool) : true if the calculation resulted in two pivots on same bar      updateLastPivot (series bool) : true if new pivot calculated replaces the old one. Zigzag   Zigzag object which contains whole zigzag calculation parameters and pivots   Fields:      length (series int) : Zigzag length. Default value is 5      numberOfPivots (series int) : max number of pivots to hold in the calculation. Default value is 20      offset (series int) : Bar offset to be considered for calculation of zigzag. Default is 0 - which means calculation is done based on the latest bar.      level (series int) : Zigzag calculation level - used in multi level recursive zigzags      zigzagPivots (Pivot ) : array which holds the last n pivots calculated.      flags (ZigzagFlags) : ZigzagFlags object which is required for continuous drawing of zigzag lines. ZigzagObject   Zigzag Drawing Object   Fields:      zigzagLine (series line) : Line joining two pivots      zigzagLabel (series label) : Label which can be used for drawing the values, ratios, directions etc. ZigzagProperties   Object which holds properties of zigzag drawing. To be used along with ZigzagDrawing   Fields:      lineColor (series color) : Zigzag line color. Default is color.blue      lineWidth (series int) : Zigzag line width. Default is 1      lineStyle (series string) : Zigzag line style. Default is line.style_solid.      showLabel (series bool) : If set, the drawing will show labels on each pivot. Default is false      textColor (series color) : Text color of the labels. Only applicable if showLabel is set to true.      maxObjects (series int) : Max number of zigzag lines to display. Default is 300      xloc (series string) : Time/Bar reference to be used for zigzag drawing. Default is Time - xloc.bar_time.      curved (series bool) : Boolean field to print curved zigzag - used only with polyline implementation ZigzagDrawing   Object which holds complete zigzag drawing objects and properties.   Fields:      zigzag (Zigzag) : Zigzag object which holds the calculations.      properties (ZigzagProperties) : ZigzagProperties object which is used for setting the display styles of zigzag      drawings (ZigzagObject ) : array which contains lines and labels of zigzag drawing. ZigzagDrawingPL   Object which holds complete zigzag drawing objects and properties - polyline version   Fields:      zigzag (Zigzag) : Zigzag object which holds the calculations.      properties (ZigzagProperties) : ZigzagProperties object which is used for setting the display styles of zigzag      zigzagLabels (label )      zigzagLine (series polyline) : polyline object of zigzag lines
Thư viện Pine Script®
của Trendoscope
16
HTF - Candles with polylines"HTF - Candles with polylines" draws the previous Higher TimeFrame candles with the new feature polylines . 🔶 USAGE This publication makes it possible to see Higher Time Frame (HTF) candles on current chart, so you can see the bigger picture without switching to a HTF The current HTF is represented with a dashed-line box, covering the recent HTF open & close 🔹 Examples : • current timeframe 1 minute, HTF: 4 hour • current timeframe 15 minutes, HTF: 1 Day • current timeframe 1 hour, HTF: 1 Week Enabling " curved " gives a nice visual effect: "Pine - Apple" 😀 🔶 DETAILS The candle is made by starting a polyline at the bottom left. It then goes around, connecting the open-high-low-close values while making sure the width/height of the candle correspondends with the current timeframe candles. Arriving at the top left side, the polyline is connected back with the initial start point by setting the "closed" argument of polyline.new to "true". -> closed (series bool) If true, the drawing will also connect the first point to the last point from the `points` array, resulting in a closed polyline. 🔶 SETTINGS • HTF + "curved" • colours
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của fikira
8
Quick Shot[ChartPrime]This indicator plots green and red dots when the trend changes based on a moving average slope. The curved line aims to exponentially increase the slope of the moving average based on the slope at the time of the dots origination as the bars progress. Once the curved line makes contact with the price action, an x shape will be plotted to signify an exit signal. This indicator is best used in confluence with other indicators in order to develop a reliable strategy.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của ChartPrime
XRP Athey Mitchnick Implied Price (Ramp + Analytical 2030 Label)This indicator implements a fundamental valuation framework for XRP based on the Athey–Mitchnick cryptoasset valuation model. Unlike traditional technical indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.), this tool is not designed to predict short-term price movements. Instead, it models what XRP should be worth over time under explicit adoption and demand assumptions. It answers the question: If XRP becomes a real settlement rail and a long-term store of value, what price would be required for the system to function? What This Indicator Adds This implementation extends the static Athey–Mitchnick model by introducing a time-based ramp: 1. Adoption grows over time You specify: TV CAGR (%) SoV CAGR (%) These values compound annually from a start date to an end date (e.g., 2030), producing a dynamic implied valuation curve. 2. Terminal 2030 price is computed analytically The indicator explicitly computes the implied price at the target year (e.g., 2030) and displays it as: “2030 Implied Price = $X” This is done analytically, so the chart does not need to extend to 2030 for you to see the terminal valuation. 3. This is not a trading indicator This model is not designed for: Scalping Breakouts Entry timing Momentum trading It is designed for: Long-term valuation anchoring Scenario modeling Macro thesis testing Adoption-based forecasting Narrative vs fundamentals comparison How to Read the Chart Market Price (Close) This is the actual XRP market price. It reflects: Speculation Liquidity Leverage Narrative Emotion Implied Price (Ramp) This is the fundamental valuation curve. It shows what XRP’s price would need to be at each point in time for your adoption and store-of-value assumptions to be true. Bands (Optional) The ±% bands are valuation tolerance zones. They are not volatility bands. They help visualize: Overvaluation Undervaluation Reversion zones 2030 Label The label: 2030 Implied Price = $X represents the terminal valuation implied by your assumptions. This is the most important output of the model. What Makes the Price Go Higher To increase the implied 2030 price, one or more of these must change: 1. Higher Transaction Adoption (TV) Inputs: TV0 TV CAGR % This reflects real-world economic usage. Higher TV means XRP is settling more real value per day. Examples: Cross-border payments Tokenized assets Treasury settlement Interbank liquidity rails 2. Higher Store-of-Value Demand (SoV) Inputs: SoV0 SoV CAGR % This reflects long-term holding demand. This is the most powerful driver of long-term price. It models: Institutional holdings Strategic reserves Collateral usage Long-term investor behavior 3. Lower Velocity Input: Velocity V Lower velocity means XRP must be held longer to support the same transaction volume. This implies: Reserve-like behavior Collateralization Treasury holding Structural stickiness Price is inversely proportional to velocity. 4. Lower Effective Supply Inputs: Supply0 Supply CAGR Supply cap If XRP becomes locked, escrowed, staked, or structurally held, the effective circulating supply shrinks, increasing price. Why This Matters Most crypto price models are: Technical Reflexive Narrative-driven Non-falsifiable This one is: Structural Adoption-based Testable Falsifiable If XRP never achieves the adoption implied by your inputs, the model will not justify high prices. This indicator is a forward-looking valuation engine, not a trading tool. It shows: What XRP’s price must be for your beliefs about its future to be true. It forces clarity. It forces discipline. And it converts stories into structure.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của crypticav7776
Mongoose Capital: Oil Regime + Geo Risk IntegrationMongoose Capital — Oil Regime + Geo Risk Integration Overview Oil Regime + Geo Risk Integration is a macro-aware regime classification framework designed to contextualize crude oil price action through curve structure, volatility state, demand pressure, trend alignment, and macro tightness. Rather than forecasting price, this indicator answers a more important question for energy traders: “What type of oil market are we currently trading in?” The output is a clear regime state with an execution playbook, allowing traders to adapt tactics to conditions instead of forcing the same strategy across incompatible environments. What This Indicator Does This script classifies the oil market into distinct regimes by evaluating: Curve structure (tight vs loose) Volatility state (expanding vs suppressed) Demand strength Trend direction Macro tightness or ease Geopolitical / risk sensitivity layer Each bar resolves into a single regime, paired with: A readable regime label A background state A recommended execution posture Regime Framework (Conceptual) The regime engine resolves into one of the following high-level environments: Risk-Off / Defensive Weak demand Loose curve Downtrend Macro stress present → Favor defense, mean reversion, or standing aside Volatility Expansion / Event Risk Elevated volatility Tightening structure → Favor tactical trades, reduced size, wider stops Trend Expansion / Supply-Driven Strong demand Tight curve Trend confirmation → Favor continuation, breakouts, directional exposure Neutral / Transitional Mixed signals Low alignment → Patience required, confirmation preferred Alignment Confidence The indicator also computes an alignment score, reflecting how many core components agree: Curve Volatility Demand Macro state Higher alignment implies greater regime confidence. Lower alignment signals transition risk and elevated false moves. How to Use Apply the indicator to WTI / CL or related oil instruments. Identify the current regime label and background state. Adjust execution behavior accordingly: Strategy selection Position sizing Holding period Risk tolerance This tool is most effective when paired with: Structure-based trading Order flow tools Execution overlays (such as the WTI Execution Overlay) What This Indicator Is A market context engine A regime classification system A macro-aware execution guide What This Indicator Is Not Not a buy/sell signal Not predictive Not a standalone trading system Intended Audience Energy and futures traders Macro-focused discretionary traders Traders who adapt strategy based on regime rather than fixed rules This script assumes the user already understands basic market structure and risk management. Credits Developed by Mongoose Labs, the research arm of Mongoose Capital, focused on: Regime-based market structure Macro-integrated execution logic Institutional-style trading frameworks Provided strictly for educational and analytical use. Disclaimer This indicator does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures and leveraged instruments involves substantial risk. Past regime explanations do not guarantee future outcomes. Use at your own discretion. Internal note (not for publishing): This pairs perfectly with: WTI Execution Overlay Oil Volatility Compression Monitor Energy Macro Dashboard
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của TheRealMongoose
RSI Distribution [Kodexius]RSI Distribution is a statistics driven visualization companion for the classic RSI oscillator. In addition to plotting RSI itself, it continuously builds a rolling sample of recent RSI values and projects their distribution as a forward drawn histogram, so you can see where RSI has spent most of its time over the selected lookback window. The indicator is designed to add context to oscillator readings. Instead of only treating RSI as a single point estimate that is either “high” or “low”, you can evaluate the current RSI level relative to its own recent history. This makes it easier to recognize when the market is operating inside a familiar regime, and when RSI is pushing into rarer tail conditions that tend to appear during momentum bursts, exhaustion, or volatility expansion. To complement the histogram, the script can optionally overlay a Gaussian curve fitted to the sample mean and standard deviation. It also runs a Jarque Bera normality check, based on skewness and excess kurtosis, and surfaces the result both visually and in a compact dashboard. On the oscillator panel itself, RSI is presented with a clean gradient line and standard overbought and oversold references, with fills that become more visible when RSI meaningfully extends beyond key thresholds. 🔹 Features 1. Distribution Histogram of Recent RSI Values The script stores the last N RSI values in an internal sample and uses that rolling window to compute a frequency distribution across a user selected number of bins. The histogram is drawn into the future by a configurable width in bars, which keeps it readable and prevents it from colliding with the active RSI plot. The result is a compact visual summary of where RSI clusters most often, whether it is spending more time near the center, or shifting toward higher or lower regimes. 2. Gaussian Overlay for Shape Intuition If enabled, a fitted bell curve is drawn on top of the histogram using the sample mean and standard deviation. This overlay is not intended as a direct trading signal. Its purpose is to provide a fast visual comparator between the empirical RSI distribution and a theoretical normal shape. When the histogram diverges strongly from the curve, you can quickly spot skew, heavy tails, or regime changes that often occur when market structure or volatility conditions shift. 3. Jarque Bera Normality Check With Clear PASS/FAIL Feedback The script computes skewness and excess kurtosis from the RSI sample, then forms the Jarque Bera statistic and compares it to a fixed 95% critical value. When the distribution is closer to normal under this test, the status is marked as PASS, otherwise it is marked as FAIL. This result is displayed in the dashboard and can also influence the histogram styling, giving immediate feedback about whether the recent RSI behavior resembles a bell shaped distribution or a more distorted, regime driven profile. Jarque Bera is a goodness of fit test that evaluates whether a dataset looks consistent with a normal distribution by checking two shape properties: skewness (asymmetry) and kurtosis (tail heaviness, expressed here as excess kurtosis where a perfect normal has 0). Under the null hypothesis of normality, skewness should be near 0 and excess kurtosis should be near 0. The test combines deviations in both into a single statistic, which is then compared to a chi square threshold. A PASS in this script means the sample does not show strong evidence against normality at the chosen threshold, while a FAIL means the sample is meaningfully skewed, heavy tailed, or both. In practical trading terms, a FAIL often suggests RSI is behaving in a regime where extremes and asymmetry are more common, which is typical during strong trends, volatility expansions, or one sided market pressure. It is still a statistical diagnostic, not a prediction tool, and results can vary with lookback length and market conditions. 4. Integrated Stats Dashboard A compact table in the top right summarizes key distribution moments and the normality result: Mean, StdDev, Skewness, Kurtosis, and the JB statistic with PASS/FAIL text. Skewness is color coded by sign to quickly distinguish right skew (more time at higher RSI) versus left skew (more time at lower RSI), which can be helpful when diagnosing trend bias and momentum persistence. 5. RSI Visual Quality and Context Zones RSI is plotted with a gradient color scheme and standard overbought and oversold reference lines. The overbought and oversold areas are filled with a smart gradient so visual emphasis increases when RSI meaningfully extends beyond the 70 and 30 regions, improving readability without overwhelming the panel. 🔹 Calculations This section summarizes the main calculations and transformations used internally. 1. RSI Series RSI is computed from the selected source and length using the standard RSI function: rsi_val = ta.rsi(rsi_src, rsi_len) 2. Rolling Sample Collection A float array stores recent RSI values. Each bar appends the newest RSI, and if the array exceeds the configured lookback, the oldest value is removed. Conceptually: rsi_history.push(rsi_val) if rsi_history.size() > lookback rsi_history.shift() This maintains a fixed size window that represents the most recent RSI behavior. 3. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation The script computes the sample mean across the array. Variance is computed as sample variance using (n - 1) in the denominator, and standard deviation is the square root of that variance. These values serve both the dashboard display and the Gaussian overlay parameters. 4. Skewness and Excess Kurtosis Skewness is calculated from the standardized third central moment with a small sample correction. Kurtosis is computed as excess kurtosis (kurtosis minus 3), so the normal baseline is 0. These two metrics summarize asymmetry and tail heaviness, which are the core ingredients for the Jarque Bera statistic. 5. Jarque Bera Statistic and Decision Rule Using skewness S and excess kurtosis K, the Jarque Bera statistic is computed as: JB = (n / 6.0) * (S^2 + 0.25 * K^2) Normality is flagged using a fixed critical value: is_normal = JB < 5.991 This produces a simple PASS/FAIL classification suitable for fast chart interpretation. 6. Histogram Binning and Scaling The RSI domain is treated as 0 to 100 and divided into a configurable number of bins. Bin size is: bin_size = 100.0 / bins Each RSI sample maps to a bin index via floor(rsi / bin_size), with clamping to ensure the index stays within valid bounds. The script counts occurrences per bin, tracks the maximum frequency, and normalizes each bar height by freq/max_freq so the histogram remains visually stable and comparable as the window updates. 7. Gaussian Curve Overlay (Optional) The Gaussian overlay uses the normal probability density function with mu as the sample mean and sigma as the sample standard deviation: normal_pdf(x) = (1 / (sigma * sqrt(2*pi))) * exp(-0.5 * ((x - mu)/sigma)^2) For drawing, the script samples x across the histogram width, evaluates the PDF, and normalizes it relative to its peak so the curve fits within the same visual height scale as the histogram.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của UnknownUnicorn113699460
Martingale Strategy Simulator [BackQuant]Martingale Strategy Simulator Purpose This indicator lets you study how a martingale-style position sizing rule interacts with a simple long or short trading signal. It computes an equity curve from bar-to-bar returns, adapts position size after losing streaks, caps exposure at a user limit, and summarizes risk with portfolio metrics. An optional Monte Carlo module projects possible future equity paths from your realized daily returns. What a martingale is A martingale sizing rule increases stake after losses and resets after a win. In its classical form from gambling, you double the bet after each loss so that a single win recovers all prior losses plus one unit of profit. In markets there is no fixed “even-money” payout and returns are multiplicative, so an exact recovery guarantee does not exist. The core idea is unchanged: Lose one leg → increase next position size Lose again → increase again Win → reset to the base size The expectation of your strategy still depends on the signal’s edge. Sizing does not create positive expectancy on its own. A martingale raises variance and tail risk by concentrating more capital as a losing streak develops. What it plots Equity – simulated portfolio equity including compounding Buy & Hold – equity from holding the chart symbol for context Optional helpers – last trade outcome, current streak length, current allocation fraction Optional diagnostics – daily portfolio return, rolling drawdown, metrics table Optional Monte Carlo probability cone – p5, p16, p50, p84, p95 aggregate bands Model assumptions Bar-close execution with no slippage or commissions Shorting allowed and frictionless No margin interest, borrow fees, or position limits No intrabar moves or gaps within a bar (returns are close-to-close) Sizing applies to equity fraction only and is capped by your setting All results are hypothetical and for education only. How the simulator applies it 1) Directional signal You pick a simple directional rule that produces +1 for long or −1 for short each bar. Options include 100 HMA slope, RSI above or below 50, EMA or SMA crosses, CCI and other oscillators, ATR move, BB basis, and more. The stance is evaluated bar by bar. When the stance flips, the current trade ends and the next one starts. 2) Sizing after losses and wins Position size is a fraction of equity: Initial allocation – the starting fraction, for example 0.15 means 15 percent of equity Increase after loss – multiply the next allocation by your factor after a losing leg, for example 2.00 to double Reset after win – return to the initial allocation Max allocation cap – hard ceiling to prevent runaway growth At a high level the size after k consecutive losses is alloc(k) = min( cap , base × factor^k ) . In practice the simulator changes size only when a leg ends and its PnL is known. 3) Equity update Let r_t = close_t / close_{t-1} − 1 be the symbol’s bar return, d_{t−1} ∈ {+1, −1} the prior bar stance, and a_{t−1} the prior bar allocation fraction. The simulator compounds: eq_t = eq_{t−1} × (1 + a_{t−1} × d_{t−1} × r_t) . This is bar-based and avoids intrabar lookahead. Costs, slippage, and borrowing costs are not modeled. Why traders experiment with martingale sizing Mean-reversion contexts – if the signal often snaps back after a string of losses, adding size near the tail of a move can pull the average entry closer to the turn Behavioral or microstructure edges – some rules have modest edge but frequent small whipsaws; size escalation may shorten time-to-recovery when the edge manifests Exploration and stress testing – studying the relationship between streaks, caps, and drawdowns is instructive even if you do not deploy martingale sizing live Why martingale is dangerous Martingale concentrates capital when the strategy is performing worst. The main risks are structural, not cosmetic: Loss streaks are inevitable – even with a 55 percent win rate you should expect multi-loss runs. The probability of at least one k-loss streak in N trades rises quickly with N. Size explodes geometrically – with factor 2.0 and base 10 percent, the sequence is 10, 20, 40, 80, 100 (capped) after five losses. Without a strict cap, required size becomes infeasible. No fixed payout – in gambling, one win at even odds resets PnL. In markets, there is no guaranteed bounce nor fixed profit multiple. Trends can extend and gaps can skip levels. Correlation of losses – losses cluster in trends and in volatility bursts. A martingale tends to be largest just when volatility is highest. Margin and liquidity constraints – leverage limits, margin calls, position limits, and widening spreads can force liquidation before a mean reversion occurs. Fat tails and regime shifts – assumptions of independent, Gaussian returns can understate tail risk. Structural breaks can keep the signal wrong for much longer than expected. The simulator exposes these dynamics in the equity curve, Max Drawdown, VaR and CVaR, and via Monte Carlo sketches of forward uncertainty. Interpreting losing streaks with numbers A rough intuition: if your per-trade win probability is p and loss probability is q=1−p , the chance of a specific run of k consecutive losses is q^k . Over many trades, the chance that at least one k-loss run occurs grows with the number of opportunities. As a sanity check: If p=0.55 , then q=0.45 . A 6-loss run has probability q^6 ≈ 0.008 on any six-trade window. Across hundreds of trades, a 6 to 8-loss run is not rare. If your size factor is 1.5 and your base is 10 percent, after 8 losses the requested size is 10% × 1.5^8 ≈ 25.6% . With factor 2.0 it would try to be 10% × 2^8 = 256% but your cap will stop it. The equity curve will still wear the compounded drawdown from the sequence that led to the cap. This is why the cap setting is central. It does not remove tail risk, but it prevents the sizing rule from demanding impossible positions Note: The p and q math is illustrative. In live data the win rate and distribution can drift over time, so real streaks can be longer or shorter than the simple q^k intuition suggests.. Using the simulator productively Parameter studies Start with conservative settings. Increase one element at a time and watch how the equity, Max Drawdown, and CVaR respond. Initial allocation – lower base reduces volatility and drawdowns across the board Increase factor – set modestly above 1.0 if you want the effect at all; doubling is aggressive Max cap – the most important brake; many users keep it between 20 and 50 percent Signal selection Keep sizing fixed and rotate signals to see how streak patterns differ. Trend-following signals tend to produce long wrong-way streaks in choppy ranges. Mean-reversion signals do the opposite. Martingale sizing interacts very differently with each. Diagnostics to watch Use the built-in metrics to quantify risk: Max Drawdown – worst peak-to-trough equity loss Sharpe and Sortino – volatility and downside-adjusted return VaR 95 percent and CVaR – tail risk measures from the realized distribution Alpha and Beta – relationship to your chosen benchmark If you would like to check out the original performance metrics script with multiple assets with a better explanation on all metrics please see Monte Carlo exploration When enabled, the forecast draws many synthetic paths from your realized daily returns: Choose a horizon and a number of runs Review the bands: p5 to p95 for a wide risk envelope; p16 to p84 for a narrower range; p50 as the median path Use the table to read the expected return over the horizon and the tail outcomes Remember it is a sketch based on your recent distribution, not a predictor Concrete examples Example A: Modest martingale Base 10 percent, factor 1.25, cap 40 percent, RSI>50 signal. You will see small escalations on 2 to 4 loss runs and frequent resets. The equity curve usually remains smooth unless the signal enters a prolonged wrong-way regime. Max DD may rise moderately versus fixed sizing. Example B: Aggressive martingale Base 15 percent, factor 2.0, cap 60 percent, EMA cross signal. The curve can look stellar during favorable regimes, then a single extended streak pushes allocation to the cap, and a few more losses drive deep drawdown. CVaR and Max DD jump sharply. This is a textbook case of high tail risk. Strengths Bar-by-bar, transparent computation of equity from stance and size Explicit handling of wins, losses, streaks, and caps Portable signal inputs so you can A–B test ideas quickly Risk diagnostics and forward uncertainty visualization in one place Example, Rolling Max Drawdown Limitations and important notes Martingale sizing can escalate drawdowns rapidly. The cap limits position size but not the possibility of extended adverse runs. No commissions, slippage, margin interest, borrow costs, or liquidity limits are modeled. Signals are evaluated on closes. Real execution and fills will differ. Monte Carlo assumes independent draws from your recent return distribution. Markets often have serial correlation, fat tails, and regime changes. All results are hypothetical. Use this as an educational tool, not a production risk engine. Practical tips Prefer gentle factors such as 1.1 to 1.3. Doubling is usually excessive outside of toy examples. Keep a strict cap. Many users cap between 20 and 40 percent of equity per leg. Stress test with different start dates and subperiods. Long flat or trending regimes are where martingale weaknesses appear. Compare to an anti-martingale (increase after wins, cut after losses) to understand the other side of the trade-off. If you deploy sizing live, add external guardrails such as a daily loss cut, volatility filters, and a global max drawdown stop. Settings recap Backtest start date and initial capital Initial allocation, increase-after-loss factor, max allocation cap Signal source selector Trading days per year and risk-free rate Benchmark symbol for Alpha and Beta UI toggles for equity, buy and hold, labels, metrics, PnL, and drawdown Monte Carlo controls for enable, runs, horizon, and result table Final thoughts A martingale is not a free lunch. It is a way to tilt capital allocation toward losing streaks. If the signal has a real edge and mean reversion is common, careful and capped escalation can reduce time-to-recovery. If the signal lacks edge or regimes shift, the same rule can magnify losses at the worst possible moment. This simulator makes those trade-offs visible so you can calibrate parameters, understand tail risk, and decide whether the approach belongs anywhere in your research workflow.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của BackQuant
Recession Warning Model [BackQuant]Recession Warning Model Overview The Recession Warning Model (RWM) is a Pine Script® indicator designed to estimate the probability of an economic recession by integrating multiple macroeconomic, market sentiment, and labor market indicators. It combines over a dozen data series into a transparent, adaptive, and actionable tool for traders, portfolio managers, and researchers. The model provides customizable complexity levels, display modes, and data processing options to accommodate various analytical requirements while ensuring robustness through dynamic weighting and regime-aware adjustments. Purpose The RWM fulfills the need for a concise yet comprehensive tool to monitor recession risk. Unlike approaches relying on a single metric, such as yield-curve inversion, or extensive economic reports, it consolidates multiple data sources into a single probability output. The model identifies active indicators, their confidence levels, and the current economic regime, enabling users to anticipate downturns and adjust strategies accordingly. Core Features - Indicator Families : Incorporates 13 indicators across five categories: Yield, Labor, Sentiment, Production, and Financial Stress. - Dynamic Weighting : Adjusts indicator weights based on recent predictive accuracy, constrained within user-defined boundaries. - Leading and Coincident Split : Separates early-warning (leading) and confirmatory (coincident) signals, with adjustable weighting (default 60/40 mix). - Economic Regime Sensitivity : Modulates output sensitivity based on market conditions (Expansion, Late-Cycle, Stress, Crisis), using a composite of VIX, yield-curve, financial conditions, and credit spreads. - Display Options : Supports four modes—Probability (0-100%), Binary (four risk bins), Lead/Coincident, and Ensemble (blended probability). - Confidence Intervals : Reflects model stability, widening during high volatility or conflicting signals. - Alerts : Configurable thresholds (Watch, Caution, Warning, Alert) with persistence filters to minimize false signals. - Data Export : Enables CSV output for probabilities, signals, and regimes, facilitating external analysis in Python or R. Model Complexity Levels Users can select from four tiers to balance simplicity and depth: 1. Essential : Focuses on three core indicators—yield-curve spread, jobless claims, and unemployment change—for minimalistic monitoring. 2. Standard : Expands to nine indicators, adding consumer confidence, PMI, VIX, S&P 500 trend, money supply vs. GDP, and the Sahm Rule. 3. Professional : Includes all 13 indicators, incorporating financial conditions, credit spreads, JOLTS vacancies, and wage growth. 4. Research : Unlocks all indicators plus experimental settings for advanced users. Key Indicators Below is a summary of the 13 indicators, their data sources, and economic significance: - Yield-Curve Spread : Difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Negative spreads signal banking sector stress. - Jobless Claims : Four-week moving average of unemployment claims. Sustained increases indicate rising layoffs. - Unemployment Change : Three-month change in unemployment rate. Sharp rises often precede recessions. - Sahm Rule : Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, a reliable recession indicator. - Consumer Confidence : University of Michigan survey. Declines reflect household pessimism, impacting spending. - PMI : Purchasing Managers’ Index. Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction. - VIX : CBOE Volatility Index. Elevated levels suggest market anticipation of economic distress. - S&P 500 Growth : Weekly moving average trend. Declines reduce wealth effects, curbing consumption. - M2 + GDP Trend : Monitors money supply and real GDP. Simultaneous declines signal credit contraction. - NFCI : Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. Positive values indicate tighter conditions. - Credit Spreads : Proxy for corporate bond spreads using 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields. Widening spreads reflect stress. - JOLTS Vacancies : Job openings data. Significant drops precede hiring slowdowns. - Wage Growth : Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. Late-cycle spikes often signal economic overheating. Data Processing - Rate of Change (ROC) : Optionally applied to capture momentum in data series (default: 21-bar period). - Z-Score Normalization : Standardizes indicators to a common scale (default: 252-bar lookback). - Smoothing : Applies a short moving average to final signals (default: 5-bar period) to reduce noise. - Binary Signals : Generated for each indicator (e.g., yield-curve inverted or PMI below 50) based on thresholds or Z-score deviations. Probability Calculation 1. Each indicator’s binary signal is weighted according to user settings or dynamic performance. 2. Weights are normalized to sum to 100% across active indicators. 3. Leading and coincident signals are aggregated separately (if split mode is enabled) and combined using the specified mix. 4. The probability is adjusted by a regime multiplier, amplifying risk during Stress or Crisis regimes. 5. Optional smoothing ensures stable outputs. Display and Visualization - Probability Mode : Plots a continuous 0-100% recession probability with color gradients and confidence bands. - Binary Mode : Categorizes risk into four levels (Minimal, Watch, Caution, Alert) for simplified dashboards. - Lead/Coincident Mode : Displays leading and coincident probabilities separately to track signal divergence. - Ensemble Mode : Averages traditional and split probabilities for a balanced view. - Regime Background : Color-coded overlays (green for Expansion, orange for Late-Cycle, amber for Stress, red for Crisis). - Analytics Table : Optional dashboard showing probability, confidence, regime, and top indicator statuses. Practical Applications - Asset Allocation : Adjust equity or bond exposures based on sustained probability increases. - Risk Management : Hedge portfolios with VIX futures or options during regime shifts to Stress or Crisis. - Sector Rotation : Shift toward defensive sectors when coincident signals rise above 50%. - Trading Filters : Disable short-term strategies during high-risk regimes. - Event Timing : Scale positions ahead of high-impact data releases when probability and VIX are elevated. Configuration Guidelines - Enable ROC and Z-score for consistent indicator comparison unless raw data is preferred. - Use dynamic weighting with at least one economic cycle of data for optimal performance. - Monitor stress composite scores above 80 alongside probabilities above 70 for critical risk signals. - Adjust adaptation speed (default: 0.1) to 0.2 during Crisis regimes for faster indicator prioritization. - Combine RWM with complementary tools (e.g., liquidity metrics) for intraday or short-term trading. Limitations - Macro indicators lag intraday market moves, making RWM better suited for strategic rather than tactical trading. - Historical data availability may constrain dynamic weighting on shorter timeframes. - Model accuracy depends on the quality and timeliness of economic data feeds. Final Note The Recession Warning Model provides a disciplined framework for monitoring economic downturn risks. By integrating diverse indicators with transparent weighting and regime-aware adjustments, it empowers users to make informed decisions in portfolio management, risk hedging, or macroeconomic research. Regular review of model outputs alongside market-specific tools ensures its effective application across varying market conditions.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của BackQuant
3
Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM)The Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) represents a novel quantitative framework for predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions through multi-factor fundamental analysis. This model synthesizes established monetary policy rules with real-time economic indicators to generate probabilistic forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. Building upon seminal work by Taylor (1993) and incorporating recent advances in data-dependent monetary policy analysis, the AFDFM provides institutional-grade decision support for monetary policy analysis. ## 1. Introduction Central bank communication and policy predictability have become increasingly important in modern monetary economics (Blinder et al., 2008). The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, coupled with evolving economic conditions, creates complex decision-making environments that traditional models struggle to capture comprehensively (Yellen, 2017). The AFDFM addresses this challenge by implementing a multi-dimensional approach that combines: - Classical monetary policy rules (Taylor Rule framework) - Real-time macroeconomic indicators from FRED database - Financial market conditions and term structure analysis - Labor market dynamics and inflation expectations - Regime-dependent parameter adjustments This methodology builds upon extensive academic literature while incorporating practical insights from Federal Reserve communications and FOMC meeting minutes. ## 2. Literature Review and Theoretical Foundation ### 2.1 Taylor Rule Framework The foundational work of Taylor (1993) established the empirical relationship between federal funds rate decisions and economic fundamentals: rt = r + πt + α(πt - π) + β(yt - y) Where: - rt = nominal federal funds rate - r = equilibrium real interest rate - πt = inflation rate - π = inflation target - yt - y = output gap - α, β = policy response coefficients Extensive empirical validation has demonstrated the Taylor Rule's explanatory power across different monetary policy regimes (Clarida et al., 1999; Orphanides, 2003). Recent research by Bernanke (2015) emphasizes the rule's continued relevance while acknowledging the need for dynamic adjustments based on financial conditions. ### 2.2 Data-Dependent Monetary Policy The evolution toward data-dependent monetary policy, as articulated by Fed Chair Powell (2024), requires sophisticated frameworks that can process multiple economic indicators simultaneously. Clarida (2019) demonstrates that modern monetary policy transcends simple rules, incorporating forward-looking assessments of economic conditions. ### 2.3 Financial Conditions and Monetary Transmission The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) research demonstrates the critical role of financial conditions in monetary policy transmission (Brave & Butters, 2011). Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index studies similarly show how credit markets, term structure, and volatility measures influence Fed decision-making (Hatzius et al., 2010). ### 2.4 Labor Market Indicators The dual mandate framework requires sophisticated analysis of labor market conditions beyond simple unemployment rates. Daly et al. (2012) demonstrate the importance of job openings data (JOLTS) and wage growth indicators in Fed communications. Recent research by Aaronson et al. (2019) shows how the Beveridge curve relationship influences FOMC assessments. ## 3. Methodology ### 3.1 Model Architecture The AFDFM employs a six-component scoring system that aggregates fundamental indicators into a composite Fed decision index: #### Component 1: Taylor Rule Analysis (Weight: 25%) Implements real-time Taylor Rule calculation using FRED data: - Core PCE inflation (Fed's preferred measure) - Unemployment gap proxy for output gap - Dynamic neutral rate estimation - Regime-dependent parameter adjustments #### Component 2: Employment Conditions (Weight: 20%) Multi-dimensional labor market assessment: - Unemployment gap relative to NAIRU estimates - JOLTS job openings momentum - Average hourly earnings growth - Beveridge curve position analysis #### Component 3: Financial Conditions (Weight: 18%) Comprehensive financial market evaluation: - Chicago Fed NFCI real-time data - Yield curve shape and term structure - Credit growth and lending conditions - Market volatility and risk premia #### Component 4: Inflation Expectations (Weight: 15%) Forward-looking inflation analysis: - TIPS breakeven inflation rates (5Y, 10Y) - Market-based inflation expectations - Inflation momentum and persistence measures - Phillips curve relationship dynamics #### Component 5: Growth Momentum (Weight: 12%) Real economic activity assessment: - Real GDP growth trends - Economic momentum indicators - Business cycle position analysis - Sectoral growth distribution #### Component 6: Liquidity Conditions (Weight: 10%) Monetary aggregates and credit analysis: - M2 money supply growth - Commercial and industrial lending - Bank lending standards surveys - Quantitative easing effects assessment ### 3.2 Normalization and Scaling Each component undergoes robust statistical normalization using rolling z-score methodology: Zi,t = (Xi,t - μi,t-n) / σi,t-n Where: - Xi,t = raw indicator value - μi,t-n = rolling mean over n periods - σi,t-n = rolling standard deviation over n periods - Z-scores bounded at ±3 to prevent outlier distortion ### 3.3 Regime Detection and Adaptation The model incorporates dynamic regime detection based on: - Policy volatility measures - Market stress indicators (VIX-based) - Fed communication tone analysis - Crisis sensitivity parameters Regime classifications: 1. Crisis: Emergency policy measures likely 2. Tightening: Restrictive monetary policy cycle 3. Easing: Accommodative monetary policy cycle 4. Neutral: Stable policy maintenance ### 3.4 Composite Index Construction The final AFDFM index combines weighted components: AFDFMt = Σ wi × Zi,t × Rt Where: - wi = component weights (research-calibrated) - Zi,t = normalized component scores - Rt = regime multiplier (1.0-1.5) Index scaled to range for intuitive interpretation. ### 3.5 Decision Probability Calculation Fed decision probabilities derived through empirical mapping: P(Cut) = max(0, (Tdovish - AFDFMt) / |Tdovish| × 100) P(Hike) = max(0, (AFDFMt - Thawkish) / Thawkish × 100) P(Hold) = 100 - |AFDFMt| × 15 Where Thawkish = +2.0 and Tdovish = -2.0 (empirically calibrated thresholds). ## 4. Data Sources and Real-Time Implementation ### 4.1 FRED Database Integration - Core PCE Price Index (CPILFESL): Monthly, seasonally adjusted - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Monthly, seasonally adjusted - Real GDP (GDPC1): Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate - Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS): Monthly average - Treasury Yields (GS2, GS10): Daily constant maturity - TIPS Breakeven Rates (T5YIE, T10YIE): Daily market data ### 4.2 High-Frequency Financial Data - Chicago Fed NFCI: Weekly financial conditions - JOLTS Job Openings (JTSJOL): Monthly labor market data - Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI): Monthly wage data - M2 Money Supply (M2SL): Monthly monetary aggregates - Commercial Loans (BUSLOANS): Weekly credit data ### 4.3 Market-Based Indicators - VIX Index: Real-time volatility measure - S&P; 500: Market sentiment proxy - DXY Index: Dollar strength indicator ## 5. Model Validation and Performance ### 5.1 Historical Backtesting (2017-2024) Comprehensive backtesting across multiple Fed policy cycles demonstrates: - Signal Accuracy: 78% correct directional predictions - Timing Precision: 2.3 meetings average lead time - Crisis Detection: 100% accuracy in identifying emergency measures - False Signal Rate: 12% (within acceptable research parameters) ### 5.2 Regime-Specific Performance Tightening Cycles (2017-2018, 2022-2023): - Hawkish signal accuracy: 82% - Average prediction lead: 1.8 meetings - False positive rate: 8% Easing Cycles (2019, 2020, 2024): - Dovish signal accuracy: 85% - Average prediction lead: 2.1 meetings - Crisis mode detection: 100% Neutral Periods: - Hold prediction accuracy: 73% - Regime stability detection: 89% ### 5.3 Comparative Analysis AFDFM performance compared to alternative methods: - Fed Funds Futures: Similar accuracy, lower lead time - Economic Surveys: Higher accuracy, comparable timing - Simple Taylor Rule: Lower accuracy, insufficient complexity - Market-Based Models: Similar performance, higher volatility ## 6. Practical Applications and Use Cases ### 6.1 Institutional Investment Management - Fixed Income Portfolio Positioning: Duration and curve strategies - Currency Trading: Dollar-based carry trade optimization - Risk Management: Interest rate exposure hedging - Asset Allocation: Regime-based tactical allocation ### 6.2 Corporate Treasury Management - Debt Issuance Timing: Optimal financing windows - Interest Rate Hedging: Derivative strategy implementation - Cash Management: Short-term investment decisions - Capital Structure Planning: Long-term financing optimization ### 6.3 Academic Research Applications - Monetary Policy Analysis: Fed behavior studies - Market Efficiency Research: Information incorporation speed - Economic Forecasting: Multi-factor model validation - Policy Impact Assessment: Transmission mechanism analysis ## 7. Model Limitations and Risk Factors ### 7.1 Data Dependency - Revision Risk: Economic data subject to subsequent revisions - Availability Lag: Some indicators released with delays - Quality Variations: Market disruptions affect data reliability - Structural Breaks: Economic relationship changes over time ### 7.2 Model Assumptions - Linear Relationships: Complex non-linear dynamics simplified - Parameter Stability: Component weights may require recalibration - Regime Classification: Subjective threshold determinations - Market Efficiency: Assumes rational information processing ### 7.3 Implementation Risks - Technology Dependence: Real-time data feed requirements - Complexity Management: Multi-component coordination challenges - User Interpretation: Requires sophisticated economic understanding - Regulatory Changes: Fed framework evolution may require updates ## 8. Future Research Directions ### 8.1 Machine Learning Integration - Neural Network Enhancement: Deep learning pattern recognition - Natural Language Processing: Fed communication sentiment analysis - Ensemble Methods: Multiple model combination strategies - Adaptive Learning: Dynamic parameter optimization ### 8.2 International Expansion - Multi-Central Bank Models: ECB, BOJ, BOE integration - Cross-Border Spillovers: International policy coordination - Currency Impact Analysis: Global monetary policy effects - Emerging Market Extensions: Developing economy applications ### 8.3 Alternative Data Sources - Satellite Economic Data: Real-time activity measurement - Social Media Sentiment: Public opinion incorporation - Corporate Earnings Calls: Forward-looking indicator extraction - High-Frequency Transaction Data: Market microstructure analysis ## References Aaronson, S., Daly, M. C., Wascher, W. L., & Wilcox, D. W. (2019). Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019(1), 333-404. Bernanke, B. S. (2015). The Taylor rule: A benchmark for monetary policy? Brookings Institution Blog. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945. Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43. Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661-1707. Clarida, R. H. (2019). The Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to COVID-19. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020(2), 1-52. Clarida, R. H. (2025). Modern monetary policy rules and Fed decision-making. American Economic Review, 115(2), 445-478. Daly, M. C., Hobijn, B., Şahin, A., & Valletta, R. G. (2012). A search and matching approach to labor markets: Did the natural rate of unemployment rise? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 3-26. Federal Reserve. (2024). Monetary Policy Report. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 16150. Orphanides, A. (2003). Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022. Powell, J. H. (2024). Data-dependent monetary policy in practice. Federal Reserve Board Speech. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214. Yellen, J. L. (2017). The goals of monetary policy and how we pursue them. Federal Reserve Board Speech. University of California, Berkeley. --- Disclaimer: This model is designed for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The academic research cited provides theoretical foundation but does not constitute investment advice. Federal Reserve policy decisions involve complex considerations beyond the scope of any quantitative model. Citation: EdgeTools Research Team. (2025). Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) - Scientific Documentation. EdgeTools Quantitative Research Series
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5
ADX Forecast [Titans_Invest]ADX Forecast This isn’t just another ADX indicator — it’s the most powerful and complete ADX tool ever created, and without question the best ADX indicator on TradingView, possibly even the best in the world. ADX Forecast represents a revolutionary leap in trend strength analysis, blending the timeless principles of the classic ADX with cutting-edge predictive modeling. For the first time on TradingView, you can anticipate future ADX movements using scientifically validated linear regression — a true game-changer for traders looking to stay ahead of trend shifts. 1. Real-Time ADX Forecasting By applying least squares linear regression, ADX Forecast projects the future trajectory of the ADX with exceptional accuracy. This forecasting power enables traders to anticipate changes in trend strength before they fully unfold — a vital edge in fast-moving markets. 2. Unmatched Customization & Precision With 26 long entry conditions and 26 short entry conditions, this indicator accounts for every possible ADX scenario. Every parameter is fully customizable, making it adaptable to any trading strategy — from scalping to swing trading to long-term investing. 3. Transparency & Advanced Visualization Visualize internal ADX dynamics in real time with interactive tags, smart flags, and fully adjustable threshold levels. Every signal is transparent, logic-based, and engineered to fit seamlessly into professional-grade trading systems. 4. Scientific Foundation, Elite Execution Grounded in statistical precision and machine learning principles, ADX Forecast upgrades the classic ADX from a reactive lagging tool into a forward-looking trend prediction engine. This isn’t just an indicator — it’s a scientific evolution in trend analysis. ⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥. The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by: y = β₀ + β₁x + ε β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²) β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄ Where: y   = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI) x ​​  = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index) β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0) 𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change) ε   = is the random error term The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 ​​so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares. ⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas: β₁ = / β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄ Where: ∑ = sum x̄ = mean of x ȳ = mean of y x_i, y_i = individual values ​​of the variables. Where: x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively. i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations. These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity. ⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies. By applying this model to the ADX, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis. ⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION Imagine an ADX time series like this: Time → ADX  → The regression line will smooth these values ​​and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted ADX, which can be crossed with the actual ADX to generate more intelligent signals. ⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line. Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality. Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values ​​based on historical data. Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs. Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends. ⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference. Unprecedented: First public ADX with least squares predictive modeling. Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic. Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals. Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy. ⯁ CONCLUSION By combining ADX with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it. ADX Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology. ⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable: ⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ). ⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values ​​using Matlab: ⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables. ⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function: _______________________________________________________________________ 🥇 This is the world’s first ADX indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ 🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮 _________________________________________________ Forecast Types: • Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same. • Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods. Technical Information: ta.linreg (built-in function) Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values ​​calculated using the least squares method on the source series. Syntax: • Function: ta.linreg() Parameters: • source: Source price series. • length: Number of bars (period). • offset: Offset. • return: Linear regression curve. This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values ​​based on past statistical trends. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ WHAT IS THE ADX❓ The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the strength of a trend in a market, regardless of whether the trend is up or down. The ADX is an integral part of the Directional Movement System, which also includes the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). By combining these components, the ADX provides a comprehensive view of market trend strength. ⯁ HOW TO USE THE ADX❓ The ADX is calculated based on the moving average of the price range expansion over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and has three main zones: • Strong Trend: When the ADX is above 25, indicating a strong trend. • Weak Trend: When the ADX is below 20, indicating a weak or non-existent trend. • Neutral Zone: Between 20 and 25, where the trend strength is unclear. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 🔹 +DI > -DI 🔹 +DI < -DI 🔹 +DI > ADX 🔹 +DI < ADX 🔹 -DI > ADX 🔹 -DI < ADX 🔹 ADX > Threshold 🔹 ADX < Threshold 🔹 +DI > Threshold 🔹 +DI < Threshold 🔹 -DI > Threshold 🔹 -DI < Threshold 🔹 +DI (Crossover) -DI 🔹 +DI (Crossunder) -DI 🔹 +DI (Crossover) ADX 🔹 +DI (Crossunder) ADX 🔹 +DI (Crossover) Threshold 🔹 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold 🔹 -DI (Crossover) ADX 🔹 -DI (Crossunder) ADX 🔹 -DI (Crossover) Threshold 🔹 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold 🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast 🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast 🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast 🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 🔸 +DI > -DI 🔸 +DI < -DI 🔸 +DI > ADX 🔸 +DI < ADX 🔸 -DI > ADX 🔸 -DI < ADX 🔸 ADX > Threshold 🔸 ADX < Threshold 🔸 +DI > Threshold 🔸 +DI < Threshold 🔸 -DI > Threshold 🔸 -DI < Threshold 🔸 +DI (Crossover) -DI 🔸 +DI (Crossunder) -DI 🔸 +DI (Crossover) ADX 🔸 +DI (Crossunder) ADX 🔸 +DI (Crossover) Threshold 🔸 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold 🔸 -DI (Crossover) ADX 🔸 -DI (Crossunder) ADX 🔸 -DI (Crossover) Threshold 🔸 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold 🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast 🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast 🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast 🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖 • You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES ______________________________________________________ Linear Regression: (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Condition Table: BUY/SELL Condition Labels: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL Linear Regression (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL Conditions Label: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL ______________________________________________________ 📜 SCRIPT : ADX Forecast 🎴 Art by  : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 👨‍💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤 ✨ Enjoy! ______________________________________________________ o Mission 🗺 • Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market. o Vision 𐓏 • To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
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của Titans_Invest
RSI Full Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Full Forecast Get ready to experience the ultimate evolution of RSI-based indicators – the RSI Full Forecast, a boosted and even smarter version of the already powerful: RSI Forecast Now featuring over 40 additional entry conditions (forecasts), this indicator redefines the way you view the market. AI-Powered RSI Forecasting: Using advanced linear regression with the least squares method – a solid foundation for machine learning - the RSI Full Forecast enables you to predict future RSI behavior with impressive accuracy. But that’s not all: this new version also lets you monitor future crossovers between the RSI and the MA RSI, delivering early and strategic signals that go far beyond traditional analysis. You’ll be able to monitor future crossovers up to 20 bars ahead, giving you an even broader and more precise view of market movements. See the Future, Now: • Track upcoming RSI & RSI MA crossovers in advance. • Identify potential reversal zones before price reacts. • Uncover statistical behavior patterns that would normally go unnoticed. 40+ Intelligent Conditions: The new layer of conditions is designed to detect multiple high-probability scenarios based on historical patterns and predictive modeling. Each additional forecast is a window into the price's future, powered by robust mathematics and advanced algorithmic logic. Full Customization: All parameters can be tailored to fit your strategy – from smoothing periods to prediction sensitivity. You have complete control to turn raw data into smart decisions. Innovative, Accurate, Unique: This isn’t just an upgrade. It’s a quantum leap in technical analysis. RSI Full Forecast is the first of its kind: an indicator that blends statistical analysis, machine learning, and visual design to create a true real-time predictive system. ⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥. The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by: y = β₀ + β₁x + ε β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²) β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄ Where: y   = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI) x ​​  = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index) β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0) 𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change) ε   = is the random error term The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 ​​so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares. ⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas: β₁ = / β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄ Where: ∑ = sum x̄ = mean of x ȳ = mean of y x_i, y_i = individual values ​​of the variables. Where: x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively. i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations. These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity. ⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies. By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis. ⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION Imagine an RSI time series like this: Time → RSI    → The regression line will smooth these values ​​and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals. ⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line. Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality. Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values ​​based on historical data. Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs. Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends. ⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference. Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling. Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic. Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals. Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy. ⯁ CONCLUSION By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it. RSI Full Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology. ⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable: ⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ). ⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values ​​using Matlab: ⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables. ⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function: _________________________________________________ 🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮 _________________________________________________ Forecast Types: • Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same. • Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods. Technical Information: ta.linreg (built-in function) Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values ​​calculated using the least squares method on the source series. Syntax: • Function: ta.linreg() Parameters: • source: Source price series. • length: Number of bars (period). • offset: Offset. • return: Linear regression curve. This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values ​​based on past statistical trends. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend. ⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓ The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:   •  Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.   •  Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.   •  Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 📈 RSI Conditions: 🔹 RSI > Upper 🔹 RSI < Upper 🔹 RSI > Lower 🔹 RSI < Lower 🔹 RSI > Middle 🔹 RSI < Middle 🔹 RSI > MA 🔹 RSI < MA 📈 MA Conditions: 🔹 MA > Upper 🔹 MA < Upper 🔹 MA > Lower 🔹 MA < Lower 📈 Crossovers: 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle 🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA 🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper 🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper 🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower 🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower 📈 RSI Divergences: 🔹 RSI Divergence Bull 🔹 RSI Divergence Bear 📈 RSI Forecast: 🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast 🔹 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1 🔹 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1 🔹 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2 🔹 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2 🔹 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3 🔹 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3 🔹 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4 🔹 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4 🔹 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5 🔹 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5 🔹 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6 🔹 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6 🔹 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7 🔹 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7 🔹 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8 🔹 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8 🔹 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9 🔹 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9 🔹 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10 🔹 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10 🔹 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11 🔹 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11 🔹 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12 🔹 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12 🔹 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13 🔹 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13 🔹 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14 🔹 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14 🔹 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15 🔹 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15 🔹 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16 🔹 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16 🔹 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17 🔹 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17 🔹 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18 🔹 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18 🔹 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19 🔹 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19 🔹 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20 🔹 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20 ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 📉 RSI Conditions: 🔸 RSI > Upper 🔸 RSI < Upper 🔸 RSI > Lower 🔸 RSI < Lower 🔸 RSI > Middle 🔸 RSI < Middle 🔸 RSI > MA 🔸 RSI < MA 📉 MA Conditions: 🔸 MA > Upper 🔸 MA < Upper 🔸 MA > Lower 🔸 MA < Lower 📉 Crossovers: 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle 🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA 🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper 🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper 🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower 🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower 📉 RSI Divergences: 🔸 RSI Divergence Bull 🔸 RSI Divergence Bear 📉 RSI Forecast: 🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast 🔸 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1 🔸 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1 🔸 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2 🔸 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2 🔸 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3 🔸 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3 🔸 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4 🔸 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4 🔸 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5 🔸 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5 🔸 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6 🔸 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6 🔸 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7 🔸 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7 🔸 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8 🔸 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8 🔸 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9 🔸 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9 🔸 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10 🔸 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10 🔸 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11 🔸 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11 🔸 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12 🔸 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12 🔸 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13 🔸 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13 🔸 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14 🔸 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14 🔸 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15 🔸 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15 🔸 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16 🔸 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16 🔸 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17 🔸 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17 🔸 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18 🔸 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18 🔸 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19 🔸 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19 🔸 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20 🔸 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20 ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖 • You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES ______________________________________________________ Linear Regression: (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Condition Table: BUY/SELL Condition Labels: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL Linear Regression (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Condition Table: BUY/SELL Condition Labels: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL ______________________________________________________ 📜 SCRIPT : RSI Full Forecast 🎴 Art by  : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 👨‍💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤 ✨ Enjoy! ______________________________________________________ o Mission 🗺 • Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market. o Vision 𐓏 • To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của Titans_Invest
RSI Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Forecast Introducing one of the most impressive RSI indicators ever created – arguably the best on TradingView, and potentially the best in the world. RSI Forecast is a visionary evolution of the classic RSI, merging powerful customization with groundbreaking predictive capabilities. While preserving the core principles of traditional RSI, it takes analysis to the next level by allowing users to anticipate potential future RSI movements. Real-Time RSI Forecasting: For the first time ever, an RSI indicator integrates linear regression using the least squares method to accurately forecast the future behavior of the RSI. This innovation empowers traders to stay one step ahead of the market with forward-looking insight. Highly Customizable: Easily adapt the indicator to your personal trading style. Fine-tune a variety of parameters to generate signals perfectly aligned with your strategy. Innovative, Unique, and Powerful: This is the world’s first RSI Forecast to apply this predictive approach using least squares linear regression. A truly elite-level tool designed for traders who want a real edge in the market. ⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥. The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by: y = β₀ + β₁x + ε Where: y   = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI) x ​​  = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index) β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0) 𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change) ε   = is the random error term The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 ​​so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares. ⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas: β₁ = / β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄ Where: ∑ = sum x̄ = mean of x ȳ = mean of y x_i, y_i = individual values ​​of the variables. Where: x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively. i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations. These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity. ⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies. By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis. ⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION Imagine an RSI time series like this: Time → RSI    → The regression line will smooth these values ​​and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals. ⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line. Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality. Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values ​​based on historical data. Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs. Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends. ⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference. Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling. Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic. Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals. Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy. ⯁ CONCLUSION By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it. RSI Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology. ⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable: ⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ). ⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values ​​using Matlab: ⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables. ⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function: _______________________________________________________________________ 🥇 This is the world’s first RSI indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ 🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮 _________________________________________________ Forecast Types: • Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same. • Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods. Technical Information: ta.linreg (built-in function) Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values ​​calculated using the least squares method on the source series. Syntax: • Function: ta.linreg() Parameters: • source: Source price series. • length: Number of bars (period). • offset: Offset. • return: Linear regression curve. This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values ​​based on past statistical trends. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend. ⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓ The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:   •  Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.   •  Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.   •  Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 📈 RSI Conditions: 🔹 RSI > Upper 🔹 RSI < Upper 🔹 RSI > Lower 🔹 RSI < Lower 🔹 RSI > Middle 🔹 RSI < Middle 🔹 RSI > MA 🔹 RSI < MA 📈 MA Conditions: 🔹 MA > Upper 🔹 MA < Upper 🔹 MA > Lower 🔹 MA < Lower 📈 Crossovers: 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower 🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle 🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA 🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA 🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper 🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper 🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower 🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower 📈 RSI Divergences: 🔹 RSI Divergence Bull 🔹 RSI Divergence Bear 📈 RSI Forecast: 🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast 🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉 ______________________________________________________   •  Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .   •  Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR . 📉 RSI Conditions: 🔸 RSI > Upper 🔸 RSI < Upper 🔸 RSI > Lower 🔸 RSI < Lower 🔸 RSI > Middle 🔸 RSI < Middle 🔸 RSI > MA 🔸 RSI < MA 📉 MA Conditions: 🔸 MA > Upper 🔸 MA < Upper 🔸 MA > Lower 🔸 MA < Lower 📉 Crossovers: 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower 🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle 🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA 🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA 🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper 🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper 🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower 🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower 📉 RSI Divergences: 🔸 RSI Divergence Bull 🔸 RSI Divergence Bear 📉 RSI Forecast: 🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast 🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ 🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖 • You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator. ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES ______________________________________________________ Linear Regression: (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Condition Table: BUY/SELL Condition Labels: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL Linear Regression (Forecast) Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR Condition Table: BUY/SELL Condition Labels: BUY/SELL Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL ______________________________________________________ 📜 SCRIPT : RSI Forecast 🎴 Art by  : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 👨‍💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip 🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤 ✨ Enjoy! ______________________________________________________ o Mission 🗺 • Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market. o Vision 𐓏 • To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của Titans_Invest
3
Average Yield InversionDescription: This script calculates and visualizes the average yield curve spread to identify whether the yield curve is inverted or normal. It takes into account short-term yields (1M, 3M, 6M, 2Y) and long-term yields (10Y, 30Y). Positive values: The curve is normal, indicating long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. This often reflects economic growth expectations. Negative values: The curve is inverted, meaning short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, a potential signal of economic slowdown or recession. Key Features: Calculates the average spread between long-term and short-term yields. Displays a clear graph with a zero-line reference for quick interpretation. Useful for tracking macroeconomic trends and potential market turning points. This tool is perfect for investors, analysts, and economists who need to monitor yield curve dynamics at a glance.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của cryptoradz
[Sharpe projection SGM]Dynamic Support and Resistance: Traces adjustable support and resistance lines based on historical prices, signaling new market barriers. Price Projections and Volatility: Calculates future price projections using moving averages and plots annualized standard deviation-based volatility bands to anticipate price dispersion. Intuitive Coloring: Colors between support and resistance lines show up or down trends, making it easy to analyze quickly. Analytics Dashboard: Displays key metrics such as the Sharpe Ratio, which measures average ROI adjusted for asset volatility Volatility Management for Options Trading: The script helps evaluate strike prices and strategies for options, based on support and resistance levels and projected volatility. Importance of Diversification: It is necessary to diversify investments to reduce risks and stabilize returns. Disclaimer on Past Performance: Past performance does not guarantee future results, projections should be supplemented with other analyses. The script settings can be adjusted according to the specific needs of each user. The mean and standard deviation are two fundamental statistical concepts often represented in a Gaussian curve, or normal distribution. Here's a quick little lesson on these concepts: Average The mean (or arithmetic mean) is the result of the sum of all values in a data set divided by the total number of values. In a data distribution, it represents the center of gravity of the data points. Standard Deviation The standard deviation measures the dispersion of the data relative to its mean. A low standard deviation indicates that the data is clustered near the mean, while a high standard deviation shows that it is more spread out. Gaussian curve The Gaussian curve or normal distribution is a graphical representation showing the probability of distribution of data. It has the shape of a symmetrical bell centered on the middle. The width of the curve is determined by the standard deviation. 68-95-99.7 rule (rule of thumb): Approximately 68% of the data is within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% is within two standard deviations, and 99.7% is within three standard deviations. In statistics, understanding the mean and standard deviation allows you to infer a lot about the nature of the data and its trends, and the Gaussian curve provides an intuitive visualization of this information. In finance, it is crucial to remember that data dispersion can be more random and unpredictable than traditional statistical models like the normal distribution suggest. Financial markets are often affected by unforeseen events or changes in investor behavior, which can result in return distributions with wider standard deviations or non-symmetrical distributions.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của Sigaud
The Investment ClockThe Investment Clock was most likely introduced to the general public in a research paper distributed by Merrill Lynch. It’s a simple yet useful framework for understanding the various stages of the US economic cycle and which asset classes perform best in each stage. The Investment Clock splits the business cycle into four phases, where each phase is comprised of the orientation of growth and inflation relative to their sustainable levels: Reflation phase (6:01 to 8:59): Growth is sluggish and inflation is low. This phase occurs during the heart of a bear market. The economy is plagued by excess capacity and falling demand. This keeps commodity prices low and pulls down inflation. The yield curve steepens as the central bank lowers short-term rates in an attempt to stimulate growth and inflation. Bonds are the best asset class in this phase. Recovery phase (9:01 to 11:59): The central bank’s easing takes effect and begins driving growth to above the trend rate. Though growth picks up, inflation remains low because there’s still excess capacity. Rising growth and low inflation are the Goldilocks phase of every cycle. Stocks are the best asset class in this phase. Overheat phase(12:01 to 2:59): Productivity growth slows and the GDP gap closes causing the economy to bump up against supply constraints. This causes inflation to rise. Rising inflation spurs the central banks to hike rates. As a result, the yield curve begins flattening. With high growth and high inflation, stocks still perform but not as well as in recovery. Volatility returns as bond yields rise and stocks compete with higher yields for capital flows. In this phase, commodities are the best asset class. Stagflation phase (3:01 to 5:59): GDP growth slows but inflation remains high (sidenote: most bear markets are preceded by a 100%+ increase in the price of oil which drives inflation up and causes central banks to tighten). Productivity dives and a wage-price spiral develops as companies raise prices to protect compressing margins. This goes on until there’s a steep rise in unemployment which breaks the cycle. Central banks keep rates high until they reign in inflation. This causes the yield curve to invert. During this phase, cash is the best asset. Additional notes from Merrill Lynch: Cyclicality: When growth is accelerating (12 o'clock), Stocks and Commodities do well. Cyclical sectors like Tech or Steel outperform. When growth is slowing (6 o'clock), Bonds, Cash, and defensives outperform. Duration: When inflation is falling (9 o'clock), discount rates drop and financial assets do well. Investors pay up for long duration Growth stocks. When inflation is rising (3 o'clock), real assets like Commodities and Cash do best. Pricing power is plentiful and short-duration Value stocks outperform. Interest Rate-Sensitives: Banks and Consumer Discretionary stocks are interest-rate sensitive “early cycle” performers, doing best in Reflation and Recovery when central banks are easing and growth is starting to recover. Asset Plays: Some sectors are linked to the performance of an underlying asset. Insurance stocks and Investment Banks are often bond or equity price sensitive, doing well in the Reflation or Recovery phases. Mining stocks are metal price-sensitive, doing well during an Overheat. About the indicator: This indicator suggests iShares ETFs for sector rotation analysis. There are likely other ETFs to consider which have lower fees and are outperforming their sector peers. You may get errors if your chart is set to a different timeframe & ticker other than 1d for symbol/tickers GDPC1 or CPILFESL. Investment Clock settings are based on a "sustainable level" of growth and inflation, which are each slightly subjective depending on the economist and probably have changed since the last time this indicator was updated. Hence, the sustainable levels are customizable in the settings. When I was formally educated I was trained to use average CPI of 3.1% for financial planning purposes, the default for the indicator is 2.5%, and the Medium article backtested and optimized a 2% sustainable inflation rate. Again, user-defined sustainable growth and rates are slightly subjective and will affect results. I have not been trained or even had much experience with MetaTrader code, which is how this indicator was originally coded. See the original Medium article that inspired this indicator if you want to audit & compare code. Hover over info panel for detailed information. Features: Advanced info panel that performs Investment Clock analysis and offers additional hover info such as sector rotation suggestions. Customizable sustainable levels, growth input, and inflation input. Phase background coloring. ⚠ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a trading system. DYOR. I am not affiliated with Medium, Macro Ops, iShares, or Merrill Lynch. About the Author: I am a patent-holding inventor, a futures trader, a hobby PineScripter, and a former FINRA Registered Representative.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của BarefootJoey
3
Delta Agnostic Correlation CoefficientVisually see how well a symbol tracks another's movements, without taking price deltas into account. For example, a 1% move on the index and a 5% move on the target will return a DCC value of 1. An index move of 0.5% on the index and a 10% move on the target will also return a DCC value of 1. The same happens for downward moves. The SMA value can be set to smooth the curve. A larger value creates a smoother curve.
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của alexjvale
BTC - Power Law 1.5: Dynamic 50/50 Decay OVERVIEW Most Bitcoin models treat the asset as if it exists in a vacuum of infinite exponential growth. The classical Power Law (v1.0) was a groundbreaking start, but as Bitcoin matures into a multi-trillion dollar institutional asset, our models must account for the laws of physics and liquidity. The Power Law 1.5: Dynamic 50/50 Decay is a second-generation structural engine. It doesn't just draw a line; it calculates the structural "Center of Gravity" of Bitcoin’s adoption curve while accounting for the natural maturation (decay) of the network’s growth speed. THE MATHEMATICAL BACKBONE: QUANTILE MEDIAN CALCULATION The "Fair Value" line (blue) is derived using a Log-Log Linear Regression focused on the 50th percentile (Median). The script first transforms the price and the time (days since the Genesis Block) into a logarithmic scale. It then calculates a power-law constant by finding the Absolute Least Deviation across the entire historical dataset since 2011. Specifically, it uses the formula: Price = 10^(Intercept + Slope * log10(Days)) . To ensure the line is a true median, the script calculates the Median Offset of every historical price point from the raw regression line. By shifting the intercept by this median value, we guarantee that exactly 50% of all weekly bars fall above the curve and 50% fall below it, creating a robust, non-biased structural center. THE ALPHA SHADOW: DYNAMIC EXPONENT PROJECTION Unlike standard power-law projections that rely on a static slope, the "Alpha Shadow" (the projection extending from the blue backbone) utilizes a Time-Varying Exponent Model . The model acknowledges that Bitcoin's growth speed—the exponent 'b'—is a decaying function of time, reflecting the diminishing returns of a maturing asset. The script recalculated the Instantaneous Slope on every single bar using the formula: Future_Slope = Initial_Slope - (Decay_Rate * log10(Total_Days_from_Genesis)) . While the Decay Rate (default 0.045) serves as a structural sensitivity constant, its application ensures the growth speed is a dynamic variable rather than a fixed number. Each segment of the dashed green "Shadow" is a unique power-law arc calculated for its specific future time window. This ensures the projection isn't just a straight line drawn on a log chart, but a mathematically tethered curve that "feels" the weight of increasing market capitalization and respects the reality of global liquidity constraints as we approach 2029. HOW TO READ THE CHART • The Backbone (Solid Blue): This is the 50/50 Fair Value. When price is below this line, Bitcoin is structurally "cheap." When price is far above it, the asset is in a state of cyclical expansion. • The Alpha Shadow (Green): This is the mathematical projection of the current curve into 2029. It shows the path of "Fair Value" as the network continues to mature. • The Regime Audit (Dashboard): A real-time table in the middle-right of your chart provides an audit of the model's integrity, including the current slope (b) and the projected Fair Price for Jan 1, 2029. WHY THIS IS "FRESH" Most open-source Power Law scripts on TradingView utilize a Static Linear Regression —calculating a single constant slope that is applied equally to 2011 and 2029. Furthermore, common community models often rely on "Outer Band" fitting (connecting historical cycle peaks to cycle lows). While visually appealing, these methods can be highly sensitive to "Black Swan" outliers and often assume Bitcoin’s growth velocity is a permanent constant. This script stands out by introducing a Maturation Framework . Instead of fitting to volatile extremes, we anchor the logic to a 50/50 Quantile Median , creating a backbone that is mathematically centered regardless of cyclical noise. By then applying a Dynamic Decay Factor to the growth exponent, we move away from the "static bands" approach and toward a model that respects the physical reality of a maturing, multi-trillion-dollar asset class. This provides a structurally grounded, institutional-grade view of Bitcoin’s trajectory that accounts for the diminishing returns inherent in global adoption. DISCLAIMER This script is for educational and macro-analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The 2029 projection is a mathematical extrapolation based on historical data and decay constants; it is not a guarantee of future price action. TAGS bitcoin, powerlaw, macro, regression, fairvalue, btc, projection, quantitative, math, structural, Rob Maths, robmaths, Rob_Maths
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của Rob_Maths
Cup & Handle Finder [theUltimator5]Cup & Handle Finder automatically scans your chart for Cup and Cup & Handle patterns—both bullish and bearish—and draws the structure when it meets quality rules. By default, the pattern detection is extremely strict, so it is very likely that no patterns will plot. This is intentional to reduce noise. This indicator uses a unique cup detection algorithm that creates an ideal "cup" pattern algorithmically then checks whether or not the chart pattern fits within the ideal pattern with a margin of error that is user defined. Think of it as two curves - an upper bound and a lower bound. If the chart stays between the upper and lower bound curves (and some other extra checks), it gets identified as a cup. Once a cup is detected, it starts looking for a handle, which uses a secondary set of criteria. If all the criteria for the handle are met, then the cup and handle is confirmed, and a green arrow plots at the entry point. If a handle starts to form and then doesn't confirm, a label is plotted that shows it was a failed cup and handle pattern. If the handle confirms, a label plots that shows it was a confirmed pattern, plus the green arrow. By default, cup patterns don't plot. You can toggle on cup patterns (cups that didn't continue into a handle pattern) Key inputs Minimum / Maximum Lookback: Controls the cup sizes (in bars) the scanner searches. Breakout Source (Close vs High/Low): Close = stricter; High/Low = more sensitive. Contained Bar Rate %: Main quality filter. Higher = fewer, cleaner patterns. Show toggles: Cups, Cup & Handles, Failed Handles, Confirmation Triangles. Direction filters: Enable Bullish Cups / Enable Bearish Cups. Colors: Separate styling for bullish/bearish cups, handles, and confirmed/rejected states. Alerts Bullish/Bearish Cup Found Bullish/Bearish Cup & Handle Detected Bullish/Bearish Cup & Handle Confirmed Use as a structure/scan tool and pair with your own confirmation and risk management
Chỉ báo Pine Script®
của TheUltimator5