How To Be Contrarian

19 thg 4, 2022

My goal is to try to make traders and investor THINK DIFFERENTLY about markets. I believe as humans we seek validation, comfort in affirming our beliefs, and that manifests in the wild swings of the market when the narrative is proven wrong. Back in January 2021 I made an uncomfortable bet on Exxon XOM. It was uncomfortable at the time because the narrative was that "dirty energy" was dead, oil was going down to 12/barrel, and EV was the future. These may very well all be true... but it was early. And in investing; being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable. At the time, Exxon was trading below book value (market cap < assets-liabilities on balance sheet), it offered a 7% dividend yield which they did not cut, and had just hit a double bottom. It was NOT obvious at the time... only in hindsight. But these are the types of contrarian trades that investors MUST look at to achieve outsized gains.