[SM] Bitcoin cycles bull market
An indicator to determine the seasonality / cyclicality of bitcoin for long trades.
Application
- For traders: Identification of zones with lower risk of entering long positions
- For swing traders and investors: customizable calendar of entries into long position
Indicator structure
1. Vertical zones (green and red) of time ranges. Only for historical bars. The range width is adjustable in the indicator settings.
2. Table (in the form of a calendar) for determining the time of entering a trade in the future. The table is not editable. It displays the result of the configured zones on the historical bars.
General settings
- choose the color of the Tradingview theme (light or dark)
Table settings
- Turn table display on / off
- Set the number of months to be displayed in the table
Settings of vertical zones (green and red)
Each cycle (1 month summer, 1 month autumn, ...) has four dates
- start date of the green zone (day and month)
- date of the end of the green zone
- start date of the red zone
- date of the end of the red zone
Cyclical
Financial Astrology Juno LongitudeJuno is the 4th largest object in terms of mass in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, this asteroid is not widely used by financial astrologers but as was demonstrated in our research with Ceres and Vesta, the objects in the asteroid belt seems to be very important for the trend forecast. The zodiacal energy of this objects cannot be ignored for an accurate analysis. Based in BTCUSD historical price data we calculated the daily trend (buy/sell) during the periods where Juno was transiting across different zodiac signs and we found some significant patterns:
INDEX:BTCUSD
Bullish zodiac signs
From 387 days located in Scorpio, price increased 62% of the days.
From 316 days located in Capricorn, price increased 64% of the days.
From 300 days located in Sagittarius, price increased 56% of the days.
From 435 days located in Libra, price increased 55% of the days.
Bearish zodiac signs
From 200 days located in Taurus, price decreased 56% of the days.
From 152 days located in Virgo, price decreased 58% of the days.
Note: The Juno longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Vesta SpeedVesta (asteroid) speed provides a good indicator to determine the periods of dominant trend. During the direct phase (when the speed accelerated and reached highest value) we can observe that BTCUSD experienced a clear trend, perfect for trend following. In the contrary when speed was decelerating and speed started backward motion (retrograde) the price was in congestion experiencing sideways moves. From statistical analysis we noted that when Vesta speed is in direct motion 56% of the days resulted in price increase. When speed was stationary (starting to move retrograde) we observed that in 62% of the days the price decreased, finally, during retrograde phase in 54% of the days the price increased. Is clear that direct motion also offers more bullish days. However, in the statistical analysis of the price is not evident the price change range, with visual exploration in the chart is clear that when Vesta speed is in direct phase the range of the price is wider, therefore, direct motion provides the most interesting risk/reward ratio.
Note: The Vesta speed indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Vesta DeclinationVesta (asteroid) declination show a strong correlation with the BTCUSD trend, we can clearly see that all the most intense bullish periods have occurred when declination was moving from South to Node direction (when the slope is positive). In the events when declination was moving toward North and have penetrated the zero declination boundary (horizontal dashed line) we can observe a periods where price experienced more volatility.
Note: The Vesta declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres SpeedCeres speed influence is clear for BTCUSD and confirms other planets speed observations, volatility increase as speed is accelerating. The most dominant bull runs of BTC have occurred when Ceres was moving direct in speed and accelerating. In many cases the trend reversed or stalled where Ceres enter into deceleration period. The only exception was March 2019 where BTCUSD price increased while Ceres was moving retrograde but as we know, all the planets are acting simultaneously so careful exploration needs to be made with the other planets and asteroids speed phases during that same period to conclude why in that observation the volatility was strong.
Note: The Ceres speed indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres DeclinationCeres declination shows similar trend behaviour as we have seen with other planets, when moving from South to North the dominant BTCUSD trend is bullish, when moving from North to South the dominant trend is bearish. We observe that the periods of most intense corrections have occurred when Ceres was located in South declination.
Note: The Ceres declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres LongitudeCeres is the largest object in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter orbits, most of the people don't know that Ceres don't have the category of asteroid but a "dwarf planet", the same as Pluto. Many astrologers don't take Ceres into account when casting an astrological chart but my thinking is that if is proved by experience that Pluto with a mass of 1.30900 x 10^22 kilograms is relevant for market predictions, why not to consider Ceres which has a mass of 9.39 x 10^20 kilograms (7.2% of Pluto mass) but is closer to the Earth?
Through the statistical analysis of Ceres transit through tropical zodiac signs we noted that for BTCUSD there was a significant bullish trend where Ceres transited Aries (62% days), Gemini (67% days), Virgo (57% days) and Pisces (62% days) and significant bearish trend where Ceres transited Libra (56% days) and Scorpio (61% days).
The astrologer Bill Meridian indicated that Ceres rules: food and nursing homes. Other astrologers suggest that it rules: cooking, eating, farming, growing, gardening. I think we need more research to identify the specific sectors that are ruled by Ceres but definitely this dwarf planet is very relevant for financial markets trend forecasting.
Note: The Ceres longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Pluto LongitudePluto energy manifest as destruction, rebirth, death, waste, obsession, extremism, transformation, crime and underworld or unconscious. It takes in average 21 years to transit each zodiac sign so in relation to financial astrology, Pluto in Capricorn (current location) represent a generation that tends to be extremist and obsessed in materialism. This position also represent the evolution and transformation of some emergent economies that are raising the hand as the successors of the world power and the destruction of old professions with the rebirth of digital oriented jobs driven by technology (blockchain, artificial intelligence an internet). As Pluto travel towards Aquarius, this technology oriented transformation will reach the maximum momentum with a very intense technological disruption of the old tools we are accustomed to use today in favor of more powerful inventions that can take humanity toward the next level of evolution. Very likely this will be the massive adoption and popularisation of quantum computing, alternative energy sources and touristic space travels.
This indicator is not useful for short/mid term trends but as Pluto transit into different zodiac signs this will mark relevant disruptions in the humanity leadership organisation.
Note: The Pluto longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Neptune LongitudeNeptune energy influence the charity, confusion, imagination, waste, crime, intuition, occult, scandal, illusion and dreams. It rules the industries related to chemicals, gas and oil, drugs and alcoholic beverages, scams, non profit organisations, spirituality. The last decade Neptune have been traveling through Piscis sign which caused humanity to have an illusion that economical growth don't have limits, as consequence we saw US indexes growth toward new all time highs. However, Neptune is close to leave Piscis, in 7 more degrees as per July 2021 and new cycle is going to start. It will be interesting to see what happens as Neptune moves into Aries sign.
This longitude indicator show a zodiac signs horizontal line boundaries that identify the start of the sign marked in the corresponding horizontal line label in the Y axis, this simplify the analysis of a planet effect within specific zodiac sign.
Note: The Neptune longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Ehlers Adaptive Cyber Cycle [CC]The Adaptive Cyber Cycle was created by John Ehlers and this is a cycle based indicator which you don't find too many of these days. Each stock goes through cycles which are repeating patterns of price movement and cycle indicators help you find the timing of the cycle to capitalize on the underlying cycle. That is an extremely simple explanation but most importantly don't interpret these indicators as the same as other indicators because it may seem like there are very many false signals but that is because of the different cycles the stock is undergoing. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like to see me publish.
Fourier Analysis and Filtering [tbiktag]This tool uses Fourier transform to decompose the input time series into its periodic constituents and seasonalities , in other words, its frequency components . It also can reconstruct the time-domain data while using only the frequency components within a user-defined range (band-pass filtering). Thereby, this tool can reveal the cyclical characteristics of the studied market.
USAGE
The source and the size of the input data can be chosen by the “ Dataset Source ” and “ Dataset Size ” options. Price, volume, or some technical indicator (e.g., RSI, MACD, etc.) can serve as a source of the input data.
“ Action ” defines the type of the plot that will be displayed. Two options are available:
- Fourier Analysis
If selected, the frequency spectrum of the squares of the Fourier coefficient magnitudes is displayed. The zero-frequency component is on the right. Since the magnitudes of half of the coefficients are repeated, the graph displays only half of the frequency components.
The squared magnitude of a given frequency component is a measure of its power , that is, its contribution to the total variance of the dataset. Thus, by analyzing the frequency-domain spectrum, one can identify the most prominent seasonalities and then visualize them by using the " Band-pass Filtering " option (see below). Note that the zero component stores information about the amount of data, so it is naturally higher when the data is not centered at zero.
By activating the " Info about Frequency Component " option, the user can display information about the power and frequency of the selected Fourier component.
- Band-pass Filter
This option reconstructs and plots the dataset in the time domain, blocking frequency components outside of the cutoff frequencies (defined by the input parameters “ Upper Cutoff ” and “ Lower Cutoff ” input parameters in the “ Band-pass Filter Properties ” section).
FURTHER READING
In general, Fourier analysis has a long history of attempted applications for analyzing price data and estimating market cycles. For example, see the paper by John Ehlers
www.mesasoftware.com
and also some tools available here on TradingView, such as:
“Function: Discrete Fourier Transform” by @RicardoSantos
“Fourier series Model Of The Market” by @e2e4mfck
“Ehlers Discrete Fourier Transform” by @cheatcountry
Thus, I tried to make this tool versatile and user-friendly so you all can experiment with your own analysis.
Enjoy and don't hesitate to leave your feedback in the comments below!
BossHouse - CCI ExtendedBossHouse - CCI Extended ( An Extended version of the Original CCI ).
The commodity channel index (CCI) is an oscillator originally introduced by Donald Lambert in 1980.
Guideline
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Lambert's trading guidelines for the CCI focused on movements above +100 and below −100 to generate buy and sell signals. Because about 70 to 80 percent of the CCI values are between +100 and −100, a buy or sell signal will be in force only 20 to 30 percent of the time. When the CCI moves above +100, a security is considered to be entering into a strong uptrend and a buy signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back below +100. When the CCI moves below −100, the security is considered to be in a strong downtrend and a sell signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back above −100.
Since Lambert's original guidelines, traders have also found the CCI valuable for identifying reversals. The CCI is a versatile indicator capable of producing a wide array of buy and sell signals.
CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels. A security would be deemed oversold when the CCI dips below −100 and overbought when it exceeds +100. From oversold levels, a buy signal might be given when the CCI moves back above −100. From overbought levels, a sell signal might be given when the CCI moved back below +100.
As with most oscillators, divergences can also be applied to increase the robustness of signals. A positive divergence below −100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back above −100. A negative divergence above +100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back below +100.
Trend line breaks can be used to generate signals. Trend lines can be drawn connecting the peaks and troughs. From oversold levels, an advance above −100 and trend line breakout could be considered bullish. From overbought levels, a decline below +100 and a trend line break could be considered bearish.
Settings
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Lenght
Source
Any help and suggestions will be appreciated.
Marcos Issler @ Isslerman
marcos@bosshouse.com.br
Cyclical vs. Defensive Sector Alphashows mean excess returns of defensive and cyclical sectors vs. S&P500
